Everything is on the line for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills when they take to the field Sunday night on NBC to battle Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. The winner claims the AFC East crown. Yes, Miami is in the playoffs even if they lose, but Buffalo must win, or they go fishing.
That desperation combined with current form sees the Bills listed as 3-point favorites at DraftKings. The Over/Under has dipped to 49.5.
The boys of Bet the EDGE did a deep dive into the matchup.
Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) thinks the Total is a bit high.
“Total strikes us as too high given the way that Buffalo’s offense has struggled and the way that Miami’s offense is banged up at the moment.”
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) agrees.
“Fifty does seem high particularly because, we mentioned that the Bills were big winners last week. The Dolphins were big losers. It wasn’t just the actual kind of one seed slipping through your fingers but in that loss in an absolute meaningless portion of the game, Bradley Chubb tears his ACL and then Xavien Howard gets hurt, albeit they are now softening their tone in terms of how serious that injury is. So, this vaunted Dolphins’ defense which since the return of Jalen Ramsey against the Patriots was grading at a top three level maybe top two…they got there you know what’s handed to them Sunday. It was not impressive, not pretty.”
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The issues for Miami, however, are not limited to just their defense as Dinsick pointed out.
“The Dolphins’ offense also is a huge question mark. Tua left the game with a shoulder injury at one point. I’m not expecting Jaylen Waddle to make a return for this one. Maybe kind of keeping an eye on him for a playoff spot or for their playoff game. The injuries to the offensive line for the Dolphins are fairly well documented. They are running out of healthy bodies to run the offense they want to run…The Dolphins are in a nasty spot here.”
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Meanwhile, the Bills have seemingly figured things out following a run of early season injuries to their defense according to Croucher.
” They have DaQuan Jones who finally came back. A.J. Epenesa is back. Micah Hyde is back. Rasul Douglas, who no one talks about, but he’s one of the best corners in the NFL and they just inserted him in halfway through the season. Now I think that the team that Joe Burrow was just marching on Sunday Night Football a couple of months ago where the defense just had no chance whatsoever is a legitimately good above average unit.”
Dinsick likes the Total Under 50 for his play on this game. Croucher agrees.
“I would lean Buffalo just with the amount of health factors at the moment, I think. I’m not super confident in their offense covering the -3, but I’m with you on the Total that it should be sub 50.”
No question that every box is checked in Buffalo’s favor heading into this one outside of the venue. The past month has been win or go home for the Bills. Four wins later and they are in Miami with everything on the line. Should be a fun Sunday Night on NBC.
Note: The Bills are actually the second favorite (+380) on the board at DraftKings to win the AFC. They are the third favorite (+800) to win the Super Bowl. If you believe in the Bills to make a deep run in the playoffs, know that those odds will lessen should they knock off Miami.
*odds courtesy of DraftKings
