I love Week 3! One of my favorite angles of the season is backing some of the 0-2 teams that I still think can make the playoffs and even in some cases, win their divisions!
Sunday Night Football has two of those teams: The Chiefs and Giants! I have four bets in that game, and also got involved with the AFC South battle between the Jaguars and Texans, plus the Bears and Cowboys matchup. I’m fresh off a 8-1 +7.07 unit performance in Week 2, so let’s make some money!
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Chiefs (-6) at Giants: O/U 45.5
The 0-2 Chiefs go to MetLife Stadium to take on a 0-2 Giants team who has lost 11 of the last 12 games on primetime at home. That is good news for Kansas City.
Per Action Network, no 0-2 team in NFL history as closed as -7 point favorites, so the Chiefs have the chance. The four largest 0-2 favorites of 6 and -6.5 all covered going 4-0.
Over the past three seasons, Kansas City is 29-0 when leading after the first quarter. I think they do at MetLife on Sunday night, so I backed Kansas City 1Q -0.5 (+110) and took the Giants 1Q Team Total Under 2.5 (+130).
Looking at the early game script, New York ran three first quarter plays in Week 1 versus the Commanders to their 14. In Week 2, the Giants had 24 offensive plays and six points (two field goals) to the Cowboys’ three first quarter plays.
I don’t think New York will have the ball 10-plus plays in the first quarter with a veteran Patrick Mahomes on the other side. The Chiefs have given the Chargers (KC 12-10 plays) and Eagles (PHI 17-11 plays) two and three drives in the first quarter, but I don’t expect more than two from New York.
The first drive to end in a punt is priced at -124 and the no score on the first possession is -228. I will fade the Giants early and full game.
I played Chiefs 1Q -0.5 (+110) and full game spreads of -6 (-110), plus the Giants 1Q Team Total Under 2.5 (+130) and first half Under 9.5 (-102). I’m going hard with the 0-2 Chiefs.
Pick: Giants 1Q Team Total Under 2.5 (1 unit), Giants 1H Team Total Under 9.5 (1 unit), Chiefs -6 (1 unit), Chiefs 1Q -0.5 (1 unit)
Cowboys (-1.5) at Bears: O/U 50.5
Dak Prescott and Caleb Williams meet for one of the entertaining matchups of the 4 PM ET window.
Williams is 0-8 in his career when he plays in the 4 PM ET window or later and Prescott has beat up on under .500 teams in his career (39-12), so it’s easy to pick the Cowboys here, but I like the 0-2 Bears.
If Russell Wilson can throw for 450 yards and take you to OT, there is cause for concern post Micah Parsons life for Dallas. While Chicago’s defense wasn’t much better with 52 points allowed to Detroit, the Bears were in that game until a punt and turnover on downs in the second half gave the Lions the go ahead for the blowout.
Desperation starts to creep in at 0-2 and Chicago was expected to take a leap into being a fringe Wild Card team. I still believe Chicago has the coaching and offensive weapons to put together a successful season.
Dallas plays fast (4th overall) and if Chicago matches their pace (18th), I think the Bears will be just fine because believe or not, Chicago ranks third in the NFL for third-down defense allowing a 31.8% conversion rate despite being 0-2. Dallas is tied for the worst third down defense in the league at 51.8% with Miami.
I played the Bears at +1.5 at -118 odds and would play it down to the ML as they are starting to become a pick-em at some shops and I think Chicago wins.
Pick: Bears +1.5 (1 unit)
Texans at Jaguars (-1.5): O/U 44.5
The AFC South race is getting interesting with the Colts (2-0) in the lead with the Jaguars (1-1) nipping at the heels, and both play the 0-2 Texans and Titans!
Houston’s two losses are by five and one point to the Rams and Bucs who are both 2-0. Despite being down multiple receivers and tight ends, the Texans have find a way to be in winning positions each of the first two games.
Both of these defenses rank bottom five through two games for third down defense and bottom 10 when it comes to most penalized. The biggest different to how the start of the season has gone is Jacksonville has six takeaways through two games, which I don’t think is sustainable.
Houston has one giveaway and CJ Stroud is the more trustworthy quarterback at 3-1 against Jacksonville in his young career. Over the last 14 meetings, Houston has won 12 versus Jacksonville. I grabbed the Texans at +1.5 for -112 odds and would go down to the ML as they could close as the favorite.
Pick: Texans +1.5 (1 unit)
Season Record: 13-6 (68.4%) +5.24 units | 20.92 ROI%
Week 2 Record: 8-1 (88.8%) +7.07 units | 56.04 ROI%
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Cowboys owner Jerry Jones does two radio interviews per week in Dallas. With the Cowboys hosting the Giants this weekend, he added another one, in New York.
And, as Jerry often does, he said something interesting.
Appearing with Gary Myers on ESPN New York, Jones said the Cowboys called the Jets about a possible Micah Parsons trade. Jones wanted defensive tackle Quinnen Williams as the starting point for a trade.
The Jets, per Jones, did not have the resources to do the deal. Jones has consistently said that the Cowboys wanted to emerge from the transaction with a run-stuffing defensive tackle. (They eventually got Kenny Clark, if you haven’t heard, as part of a trade with the Packers.)
Jay Glazer of Fox Sports reported last Sunday that the Cowboys could get no traction with any AFC teams. It’s surprising, frankly, that the Bills and the Ravens weren’t boxing each other out for Parsons.
For the Ravens especially, it would have been a lot easier to hold that 15-point, fourth-quarter lead with Parsons chasing around reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen.
The Cowboys entered their Week 1 game against the Eagles without their best defensive player, who had been traded one week earlier. The Eagles lost their best defensive player to an ejection before the first play from scrimmage, due to a misadventure in spittle.
The result made Cowboys owner Jerry Jones salivate.
“I liked to have dropped my teeth when I started seeing him walk off because he’s such a fabulous football player,” Jones said in a Friday appearance on 105.3 the Fan, via TheAthletic.com. “I said, ‘Well, I guess the man upstairs is evening it up. We don’t have Micah [Parsons]; they’re letting us [not] have [Jalen Carter].’”
Jones shouldn’t count on the same luck happening again this year, especially not when the Eagles come to Dallas in Week 12.
And it ultimately didn’t matter. The Cowboys lost, 24-20.
Also losing was anyone who bet via an NFL-sponsored sportsbook on the Eagles to cover the spread. But for Carter’s magic loogie, Philly would have been much more likely to make the magic number.
The addition of Micah Parsons has given Green Bay’s defense a B-12 shot. As it relates to the career of Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, “I think it moved.”
And it will likely move in the direction of an NFL head-coaching job.
Eyebrows were raised when Hafley quit as head coach at Boston College to become an NFL defensive coordinator. It was, seemingly, a conscious half-step back in the hopes of taking a major step forward.
The major step forward the Green Bay defense has taken with the addition of Parsons will help Hafley get the boost he needs to take over an NFL team of his own.
The routine is well known. Much of landing in the center of the hiring-cycle radar screen entails being in the right place at the right time. Hafley has the reins of a Packers defense that could anchor a deep playoff run.
It’s already started. Praise will be heaped on Hafley during game broadcasts. Cutaways to his position in the coaching booth will become more common. More and more media voices will start mentioning him as a viable NFL head coach.
After all, unlike many coordinators who get promoted to a level at which they may or may not thrive, Hafley has four years of experience as a major-college head coach. And this is his ninth season as an NFL assistant coach.
So, yeah, the 46-year-old Hafley will be on the short list for January. The better the Packers do, the more seriously owners whose teams inevitably have vacancies will take Hafley as a head-coaching candidate.
While it may have happened anyway, having Parsons fall into Hafley’s lap (thanks to Jerry Jones’s gross mismanagement of Micah’s contract) makes it even more likely.
After Thursday night’s 27-18 win over the Commanders, Packers defensive end Micah Parsons opined that “defense wins championships” and there’s no shortage of people who think the Packers are positioned to win one after trading for Parsons.
Some of those people were at Lambeau Field on Thursday and they could be heard chanting “thank you Jerry” while Parsons gave a postgame interview. That was, of course, in reference to Cowboys owner Jerry Jones because he pulled the trigger on a trade that hasn’t been met with rave reviews on his side of the ledger.
On 105.3 The Fan on Friday, Jones said he knew “this would be coming” when he made the trade and made the case that the Cowboys are now likelier to win a championship with quarterback Dak Prescott than they were with Parsons on the roster.
“This was a very conscious trade to get three, four, five, six players for one,” Jones said, via Tommy Yarrish of the team’s website. “The one player? Outstanding. He’s an outstanding player. But we should be able to get, as a matter of fact, we’ve got one on the field. And of course, people say ‘But he’s no Micah.’ Well, I’m not going to debate that at all because Micah is very, very special. But I’ll tell you this right now, by the time this happens, and as we look forward to Dak’s time, when we made his contract and we look forward, this was the best way to maximize our chance to get a Super Bowl for Dak.”
The Cowboys got Green Bay’s first-round picks in the next two years and defensive tackle Kenny Clark in exchange for Parsons and it’s not unthinkable that those picks could turn into multiple players who become foundational players in Dallas. That’s going to take some time to play out, however, and continued attempts to sell the idea that the Cowboys got the best of the deal will be more difficult if the Packers keep on winning in the interim.
Those AFC teams that weren’t interested in Micah Parsons should be kicking themselves.
Only two weeks after being traded to Green Bay, Parsons has quickly become a force for the Packers, helping his new team to a pair of wins only four days apart against 2024 playoff franchises.
On Sunday against the Lions, Parsons participated in 30 total defensive snaps, 45 percent of the total workload of the defense. With only three full days off between games, Parsons took 47 snaps on Thursday night — 68 percent of all defensive plays.
Despite not playing in one third of the defensive plays (five Packers defenders registered 100-percent participation), Parsons had a very real impact. He lined up all over the place. He was held repeatedly and consistently. On at least one play, the Commanders didn’t double-team Parsons. They triple-teamed him.
On one play, Commanders left tackle Laremy Tunsil continued to hold Parsons after the play. And when rookie right tackle Josh Conerly Jr. was flagged for holding Parsons in the second half, the more accurate call should have been attempted holding. Because the hold did not impede Parsons.
Get used to this, football fans. The Packers made an all-in move that puts them in the mix with the Eagles as the best team in the conference. And circle Monday, November 10. That’s when Green Bay visits Philadelphia with, potentially and eventually, the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line.
Micah Parsons thinks it is “too early” to say that the Packers have the best defense in the NFL, but the defensive end thinks the first two weeks of the season have provided ample evidence of the unit’s quality.
Parsons and his teammates sacked Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels four times and held Washington to 230 total yards of offense in Thursday night’s 27-18 win. They were similarly effective against the Lions in Week 1 and Parsons said after the game that he thinks the Packers will win every time that Jordan Love and the offense can put 20 points on the board.
“What I’ve been telling everyone, defense wins championships,” Parsons said in his postgame media session. “J-Love, I think you give us 20 points, we should be able to win that game It’s all about getting stops and getting the ball back to the offense. As y’all seen against Baltimore and Buffalo, you can have your quarterback damn near have a perfect game but still lose because, guess what, the defense gave up, what, 40 points? So, defense wins championships. I think the fans like points and they like to see the big plays, but when you play great defense, it’s just so beautiful to see.”
The Packers traded for Parsons because they believed he would lift their defense to new heights and it’s clear that he’s done exactly that in the first two weeks of the season. That might not change the fact that it is too soon to call them the best unit in the league, but it’s probably not premature to say that the NFC is on notice about a serious contender in Green Bay.
There was no doubt Micah Parsons was playing in Thursday Night Football, but the Packers listed him as questionable nonetheless.
Parsons, who had limited practices all week, indeed is active and good to go against the Commanders.
He is expected to play more than the 29 snaps he played Sunday in his Packers debut.
Cornerback Nate Hobbs (knee) also is dressed and ready to play after a questionable designation.
The Packers, though, won’t have right tackle Zach Tom (oblique) or left guard Aaron Banks (ankle/groin). They, too, were questionable.
The team’s other inactives are safety Zayne Anderson (knee), cornerback Bo Melton, tight end Ben Sims and defensive lineman Warren Brinson.
Punter Tress Way (back) and defensive lineman Deatrich Wise (knee) are active for the Commanders after questionable designations.
The team’s inactives are punter Mitch Wishnowsky, quarterback Josh Johnson, running back Chris Rodriguez Jr., linebacker Ale Kaho, linebacker Kain Medrano, offensive tackle Trent Scott and offensive tackle George Fant. Johnson will serve as the emergency third quarterback.
Micah Parsons didn’t seem to be too bothered by his back last Sunday, but the Packers are still listing him as questionable to play against the Commanders on Thursday night.
Parsons was listed as limited in practice all three days this week, although the Packers only held walkthroughs due to the short time between games. Parsons said on Tuesday that he talked his way into more snaps than planned in the win over the Lions, so it would seem to be a good bet that he’ll be out there against Washington.
The Packers also listed left guard Aaron Banks (ankle, groin) and right tackle Zach Tom (oblique) as questionable. They were listed as out of practice all week and head coach Matt LaFleur indicated that they’ll both be game-time decisions.
Cornerback Nate Hobbs (knee) and safety Zayne Anderson (knee) round out the questionable group. Defensive lineman Brenton Cox Jr. (groin) and cornerback Bo Melton (shoulder) have been ruled out.
Micah Parsons was not supposed to play as much as he did Sunday. Not yet in football shape, after only a week of practice since the end of last season, and nursing a tight back, the star edge rusher was expected to play only on obvious passing downs.
He ended up playing 29 snaps, prompting Packers coach Matt LaFleur to joke he would “investigate” how and why Parsons was on the field that much.
Parsons said Tuesday he talked his way into more playing time.
“I told [the defensive coaches] the other day when they were talking to me about the snap counts, it’s like, ‘Man, we could run gassers; we could be in practice and you give me these plays; we can run to the ball, but at the end of the day, you’ve got to let me push through some things,’” Parsons said, via Rob Demovsky of ESPN. “‘You’ve got to let me get tired and get wore out out there so that way I can become better and get better.’
“That’s when it was like, ‘OK, your reps can go up.’ Sometimes you’ve got to fight for your own right to play.”
Parsons had three quarterback pressures, one of which led to an interception, and a sack.
Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley drew up some new plays after the Packers acquired Parsons, who expects to see more of them this week against Washington.
“He threw some in last week, threw some in this week,” Parsons said. “Obviously, we don’t get to get into everything because situational football, just where we’re at on the field, things like that, but I think this might be a game where something might come out and things like that.”
Parsons did not practice for the first time until the trade from Dallas on Aug. 28. He held in with the Cowboys, not practicing as he awaited a contract extension from Dallas that never arrived.
