Vaughn Dalzell breaks down betting the series opener between the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees.
Guardians (+110) at Yankees (-130): O/U 8.5
The Yankees have lost three-straight games and six of the past eight entering this matchup, while the Guardians have lost two-straight and four of the previous six.
These two teams met earlier in the season and New York won two of three, losing the series-opener. Two of the three games were decided by one run, so we should witness a competitive game.
New York is hitting .236 over the last seven days and six games (25th) with 46 strikeouts (T-15th) to 9 walks (T-last). The Yankees scored 22 runs over that six-game span and ranked third-worst in OPS (.604), so the offense isn’t clicking.
Cal Quantrill takes the mound for Cleveland and he has one career start but four appearances against New York. Over 60 plate appearances against current Yankees’ hitters, Quantrill owns a .192 OBA and 16.7 K% to 8.3 BB%.
Domingo Germán opposes Quantrill for New York and German only lasted 3.0 innings and 87 pitches in the first meeting against the Guardians. German did not record a strikeout and walked five batters, in addition to two hits and two runs allowed. German has similar K (18%) to BB (16%) percentages in his career against current Cleveland hitters.
New York is 2-3 in German’s five starts and scored two or fewer runs in all three losses. Quantrill went 6.1 innings and gave up six hits and three earned runs last season at the Yankees. New York won, 5-4.
I expect a better result for Quantrill against an injury-riddled Yankees’ lineup this time around, plus the Guardians are 3-0 in Quantrill’s road starts and his ERA is 3.78 away from Cleveland compared to 8.64 at home.
I grabbed the Guardians ML at +110 odds and would go down to +100 or better. The run line of +1.5 is -175 or worse at most shops.
Pick: Guardians ML (1u)
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