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Logan Webb O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Cardinals
Logan Webb is back on the mound in San Francisco, which usually means the Giants ML is a great bet.
While I wouldn’t talk you off that if you are a ML or spread bettor, I am betting Webb to go Under his K total.
The Giants star has struggled this season. In his last three games alone and 16.1 combined innings, Webb has nine earned runs on 24 hits with 10 strikeouts to five walks versus the Nationals (twice) and Mets.
Our player prop model projects Webb to go 5.2 innings and record 3.5 strikeouts to three earned runs. Webb has gone Under 4.5 Ks three out of five times this season, including two out of three at home.
In his career versus current Cardinal hitters, Webb has a 7.9 K% and a 17.7 whiff % and a .333 OBA over 38 plate appearances. While it is a small sample size, Webb’s recent struggles doesn’t offer any encouragement.
Webb has two career starts versus the Cardinals and recorded two strikeouts in each over 4.0 and 2.2 innings. Webb allowed 13 hits and nine earned runs with three walks over those two starts. Both starts came at St. Louis in 2019 and 2021.
I grabbed Webb Under 4.5 Ks for -120 odds and would play this out to -150.
Pick: Logan Webb Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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Eduardo Rodriguez O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Astros
Eduardo Rodriguez has had a solid start to his Tigers career but after an 0-2 record and a 5.33 ERA through five starts, I think he is in for his toughest start since the season-opener against the White Sox.
The man they call E-Rod will take on the Astros in Houston, marking his third straight road start.
The current Astros hitters have 109 plate appearances versus E-Rod for 26 hits, 24 strikeouts, seven home runs and six walks, per baseball savant. The Houston hitters have a .255 OBA and have torched E-Rod in four of the past five meetings.
In the last five starts versus Houston, E-Rod has allowed at least five earned runs in four games with 23 total in five starts and 24 over six. He has only made it out of the fifth innings once in six tries versus Houston and that came in 2019.
Since 2019, E-Rod went 4.2 innings both meetings with six earned runs a piece and five total walks to nine strikeouts. Houston has held eight out of 11 LHP to Under 4.5 Ks this season (72.7%).
E-Rod has hit the Over four straight games versus the Red Sox (former team), Yankees, Twins and Dodgers. He needed at least 5.2 innings in three straight but this is a prime opportunity for an Under against the Astros.
I grabbed E-Rod Under 4.5 Ks at -148 odds and would play out to -160. Outside of Tarik Skubal, Houston has handled LHP and I expect them to handle Rodriguez.
Pick: Eduardo Rodriguez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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