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Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) and Johnny Venezia (@_JohnnyVTV) Collab
Yusei Kikuchi O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Yankees
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
Yusei Kikuchi has four career starts against the Yankees, including two at Yankee Stadium.
His starts have not been impressive outside of last year’s 5.0 inning shutout on four hits with six strikeouts. Other than that, Kikuchi has five, one and three K performances in 5.0, 4.2 and 7.2 innings since 2019, per statmuse. He also has faced 23 or more batters in all four starts against New York and I doubt that happens.
I say that because I don’t think Kikuchi will go past 5.0 innings with his performance in Spring Training.
Kikuchi posted a 6.48 ERA on 8.1 innings of action (three appearances) during Spring Training. He gave up six earned runs on four homers, and 10 hits total in his past two outings. Kikuchi struck out seven and walked three in those final two appearances.
Kikuchi’s K prop opened at +105 to the Under but moved to -105 shortly. When he went 4.2 innings or less last season, Kikuchi was 5-2 to the Under (71.4%). That is what we are hoping for because New York should have an advantage.
On the road last season, Kikuchi posted a 4.61 ERA, .254 OBA and 1.0 Ks per inning over 16 starts. He averaged 5.0 strikeouts per game away from home and is far worse overall against RHB (.271 OBA compared to .147 LHB).
The Yankees lineup features a ton of RHB. Only Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo are LHB, and Kikuchi has never faced Rizzo (8 PA vs Gallo). Kikuchi owns a 14.5 K% and 17.5 whiff% against the current Yankees hitters with nine Ks to seven walks in 62 plate appearances. Gallo will be our main concern if he is in the lineup.
Let’s go Under 4.5 Ks on Kikuchi as he could get knocked around and fall short of 5.0 innings against the Yankees.
Yusei we’re going under? Sorry, I just couldn’t help myself.
Believe it or not (George isn’t at home), I think Kikuchi could be a solid acquisition for Toronto to solidify the back half of their rotation. He has the ability to pull a DMX and stop, drop, shut it down, and open up shop.
As a Seattle Mariner a season ago, he totaled 14 quality starts out of 29 chances. Just like his consistency can be hit or miss, the same thing can be said for his strikeout numbers.
While Kikuchi had a rock solid 9.3 K/9 rate a season ago, he only notched over five punchouts in 15 of his 29 starts. I mean occasionally we get the double digit K game, or even eight plus, but for the most part he has been a pitcher you need to pick your spots on.
The Yanks mashed left-handed pitching last season with a .255 average and .759 OPS. Trotting out a righty heavy lineup should be a key ingredient to knocking him out before he reaches five punchouts.
Kikuchi not only got rocked by righty’s last season (.271 average, 22 dingers, .830 OPS), but in both starts against the Yankees, he barely managed five innings thanks to high rising pitch counts.
The probability is he does not venture past the fifth inning, leaving for a good price on the under vs. a lineup that was just shutout on Monday night. We played this at -106 on FanDuel and would go out to -130.
Pick: Yusei Kikuchi Under 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Yankees (1u)
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