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John Collins O/U 11.5 Points vs. Celtics
I am surprised this line is this low without Robert Williams for the Celitcs.
John Collins has recorded 14 or more points in nine out of the last 10 meetings versus Boston (90%). Over his entire career, Collins has played the Celtics 16 times and scored 12-plus points in 12 outings (75%).
This season, Collins averages 14.9 points at home compared to 10.4 on the road in the same amount of games (7 games each). Here are his shooting splits at home and on the road:
Home: 14.9 PPG, 52.1% FG, 38.1% 3PT, 100% FT
Road: 10.4 PPG, 46.2% FG, 10% 3PT, 84% FT
Collins is 26-12 to the Over 12.5 Points at home since the start of 2021 (68.4%) and 17-5 at 30 or more minutes (77.2%), per NBC’s Player Prop model. The model also projects Collins at 16.3 points in Atlanta tonight.
The Hawks forward is hitting a 82.6 field goal percentage on his paint touches and the Celtics allow 46.1 points per game in the paint (10th). I don’t expect Clint Capela to make much of a difference scoring with Al Horford guarding him.
The Celtics have a small lineup and there’s a chance Capela doesn’t play a ton of minutes if Atlanta chooses to match Boston and go small for stints with Collins at center.
I played the Over 11.5 points (-130). I would play this at 1 unit if it hits 12.5 points.
Pick: John Collins Over 11.5 Points (1u)
Dejounte Murray O/U 6.5 Assists vs. Celtics
Dejounte Murray has been a terrific addition the Hawks and while Trae Young leads the team, Murray is getting his teammates invovled just as much, if not more.
Murray averages 14.1 potential assists in November (8.0 apg) and 13.6 over the last five games (7.2 apg).
Looking at passes made and recieved, Murray leads the Hawks with an average of 45.1 passes made per game and is second with 56.3 passes received per game (Trae Young). Over November, Murray’s numbers are up to 47.3 passes made and 60.1 passes received, which are both top 25 in the NBA.
The Celtics allow the 11th and 12th-most rebounds and assists to shooting guards this season, along with the 5th-most points per game. They have been a factory to guards hitting the Over this season with Robert Williams out of the lineup.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (8), Killian Hayes (7), Jamal Murray (10), Jaden Ivey (6) and Ja Morant (9) all recorded at least six assists in the past five games versus Boston -- they led their team in assists.
While Trae Young averages 9.3 assists per game (3rd), Murray’s 7.8 per game isn’t far behind (8th). I like Murray’s Over 33.5 PRA and Over 12.5 R+A, but I think the best bet is his Over 6.5 assists.
NBC’s player prop model projects Murray to record 8.5 assists, hitting the Over. Murray is 6-2 to the Over in the last eight games (75%) and 9-5 to the Over with Atlanta (64.2%). When he plays 36-plus minutes, Murray is 6-2 to the Over (75%) this year.
I played the Over 6.5 assists at -115 odds and would play it to -135.
Pick: Dejounte Murray Over 6.5 Assists (1u)
Celtics (-1.5) at Hawks: O/U 236.5
Finishing our trifecta on this game, we will ride the Hawks +1.5 and sprinkle the ML (+108).
The Hawks have covered and won three-straight at home versus the Celtics, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Atlanta lost the past two meetings, which came in Boston, so this is a small revenge spot with Dejounte Murray now in the lineup. Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon are out for this game, so our Murray prop looks even better and so does the chances of Atlanta winning.
Atlanta has performed well at home this season, going 4-2-1 ATS and 5-2 on the ML.
Boston has played well on the road, going 5-2 on the ML (3-4 ATS), but it’s what they have done lately that’s keeping them as the favorite in this meeting.
The Celtics have won seven-straight games, going 4-3 ATS in that span. Three of the last four wins have come versus the Thunder, Nuggets and Pistons twice. Boston has also had weird travel here in addition to beating lackluster opponents.
The Celtics went from Boston to Detroit then back to Boston and now down to Atlanta all since Friday. Atlanta had a short two-game road trip on Saturday and Monday to Philly and Milwaukee, splitting those two games before coming back home.
Chicago and Cleveland (twice) are the only teams that beat Boston this season and two of those three losses came on the road for the Celtics.
I like this spot for Atlanta and I obviously like their player props, so I grabbed the +2 (-120) on DraftKings after missing the +3. I would play this down to +1.
Pick: Hawks +2 (1u)
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