Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets in the Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat NBA Finals, featuring props on Caleb Martin, Michael Porter Jr. and more!
Denver Nuggets -1.5 (-150) for the series
There are a lot of reasons to like the Nuggets in this series, obviously with more than 10 days rest ahead of the Finals and being 8-0 at home are significant factors but there are much more.
The matchup between Bam Adebayo and the Miami bigs versus Nikola Jokić will be a significant mismatch. Adebayo is the largest defender at 6-foot-9 and in Miami’s last six games versus Jokic, the two-time MVP averaged 25.3 PPG, 12.5 RPG and 8.5 APG (46.3 PRA).
This postseason, Jokic is averaging playoff career-highs in rebounds (13.3) and assists (10.4). Jokic and Jamal Murray have combined to average 57.6 PPG, 18.8 RPG and 16.4 APG throughout the postseason with teammates Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown stepping up.
While Miami was the lowest-scoring team in the regular-season, they have been the complete opposite in the playoffs. The Heat have had a ton of hot shooting and well-balanced scoring. Miami has eight out of 10 rotation players hitting 35% or better from three and seven different players averaging 10 points per game in the postseason.
Miami will rely heavily on Jimmy Butler and Adebayo, of course, but bench players like Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith, Kevin Love and Cody Zeller will likely be the downfall unless they can hit timely shots. I don’t think Miami has the size versus Jokic, Porter Jr. and Gordon.
I took the Nuggets -1.5 series price at -140 odds and would go out to -175 for 2 units. This means Denver can win 4-0, 4-1 or 4-2. They cannot win 4-3.
This just seems like Denver’s year and Miami going seven games with Boston after being up 3-0 did not help my confidence in the Heat.
Pick: Nuggets -1.5 series price (Risk 2u)
Lead the Series in Three-Pointers Made
Michael Porter Jr. (+250), Caleb Martin (+1300)
I though there was some value in fading Jamal Murray in this market and taking two guys, Michael Porter Jr. and Caleb Martin.
Martin made 22 three-pointers in seven games versus the Celtics on 45 attempts (48.9%), making his presence felt in nearly every game, including 26 points in Game 7 (4-of-6 from 3).
Martin made at least two three-pointers in every game versus Boston and nine out his last 10 games on nearly 50%.
With Denver’s pace, Martin could be one of the few players able to knock down triples and more importantly, he should see consistent minutes. Martin averaged 35.7 minutes per game in the ECF and played 41 and 45 minutes in Games 6 and 7.
For MPJ, he attempted 8.3 three-pointers in the ECF on 12.3 field goal attempts, meaning 67.4% of his attempts came from beyond the arc. That’s been the theme for MPJ throughout the postseason and he’s hitting 40.8% from deep in the playoffs.
At home in the postseason, MPJ has gone 21-of-44 from three (47.7%) and 12-of-21 (57.1%) in his past three home games, so I like the chances he gets off to a good start after Games 1 and 2.
Give me MPJ at +250 and Martin at +1300 to lead the series in made three-pointers.
Pick: Michael Porter Jr. (0.4u), Caleb Martin (0.1u)
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