The most recent fantasy roundtable recapping this season will focus on fantasy “hits” and “misses.” The process of ranking players before the season isn’t easy by any stretch of the imagination. But that doesn’t mean that we can’t look back on the work done during the preseason and see what proved true... and what was wildly off. Noah Rubin, Zak Hanshew, and Raphielle Johnson put together their fantasy hits and misses.
Noah Rubin’s Hits and Misses
Hit: Kawhi Leonard
Rubin’s Preseason Rank: 15
The hits were much harder to find than the misses since the majority of on-target picks I had were blatantly obvious (for example, Nikola Jokić at No. 1). Still, there were a few that were different from the consensus. Many people avoided Kawhi in their drafts because of his lack of availability over the past few seasons. He finished No. 18 in 8-cat leagues, according to Basketball Monster. The first few months were rough, but he ended up playing 52 games after missing all of last season. Kawhi’s ADP in Yahoo leagues was 25.9.
Hit: Chris Paul
Rubin’s Preseason Rank: 41
CP3 finished No. 41 in 8-cat scoring, which is right where I had him. CP3’s ADP was 36.4 in Yahoo leagues, so I was a little lower on him than most. I expected him to take a step back with how much was unknown in Phoenix after the Suns were embarrassed by Dallas during the playoffs last season. It was only slightly below where he was drafted, but I’ll consider it a hit since it was spot on.
Hit: Kevin Huerter
Rubin’s Preseason Rank: 113
Huerter was acquired by the Kings over the summer from Atlanta for a first-round pick and some salary filler, but many must have expected Malik Monk to start because Huerter’s Yahoo ADP was 137.9. However, he finished No. 110 in 8-cat scoring, according to Basketball Monster. I loved Huerter with the Hawks, so I knew he’d do well in a starting role for the Kings. Now, he’s on one of the best teams in the West and has a chance to make a run in the postseason.
Miss: Trae Young
Rubin’s Preseason Rank: 11
Trae ended up finishing No. 25 in 8-cat formats, but it was a truly awful season for him. I assumed that the addition of Dejounte Murray would help his efficiency, but he ended up shooting 3.2% worse than he did last season. I also thought that he’d have some added motivation after the embarrassing Miami series. Still, he just didn’t have that killer instinct that we saw in New York and in Philadelphia during the Hawks’ playoff run.
Miss: Damian Lillard
Rubin’s Preseason Rank: 25
I figured Dame would be better than he was during his 29 games last season, but I didn’t expect a top-five finish in 8-cat leagues. If Portland had more success as a team, Dame would likely have a case for MVP consideration. Hopefully, they’ll be able to build a contender next season or send him to someone that will.
Miss: Brook Lopez
Rubin’s Preseason Rank: 129
I don’t think anyone saw this Lopez season coming, but I have to say that I definitely didn’t. He was a third-round finisher in 8-cat formats, and among players to block at least two shots per game, he was the 3-point leader with 1.7 triples per game. The 35-year-old center had his best fantasy season since leaving the Nets, and he’s one of the three finalists for Defensive Player of the Year.
Zak Hanshew’s Hits and Misses
Hit: Tyrese Haliburton
Hanshew’s Preseason Rank: 4
I ranked him fourth overall, and he finished eighth with an ADP of 14.3. He wasn’t a top-5 option for the season, but he got close, and there were top-5 weeks. He and James Harden were the only players to average at least 20 points and 10 dimes this season, and Hali has plenty of first-round seasons ahead of him.
Hit: Kyrie Irving
Hanshew’s Preseason Rank: 11
Irving’s stock fell a bit this season, and his ADP dropped to 21.7. I ranked him No. 11, and he finished ninth, making him a fantastic draft day value. Irving is always a strong source of points, threes, assists, steals and shooting percentages. Despite Dallas’ struggles down the stretch, Irving was a top-10 option for the final month of the season.
Hit: Jamal Murray
Hanshew’s Preseason Rank: 53
After missing all of last season and playing only 48 games the season before, there were some understandable questions surrounding Murray’s durability heading into the 2022-23 season. He had an ADP of 71.9, meaning you could grab him at the end of the sixth round on average, but he finished No. 59 and logged 65 games. I ranked him No. 53, and he delivered on that fifth-round value.
Miss: Keegan Murray
Hanshew’s Preseason Rank: 50
Good call on Jamal, time to worry about the other Murray. I had a ton of faith in “King Keegan” as a Rookie of the Year candidate and as a player whose all-around skillset could be lethal for fantasy hoops. I ranked him 50, and he finished 118. Despite a strong season on the court, it didn’t translate to the fantasy realm in his first season overall.
Miss: Collin Sexton
Hanshew’s Preseason Rank: 49
Yikes. This one was just awful. I ranked Sexton 49, and he finished 237. I fully expected Sexton to be a major part of Utah’s game plan this season and to command heavy usage after the Jazz landed him in a big sign-and-trade. That didn’t happen, as Sexton logged just 23.9 minutes per game and appeared in 48 contests when healthy.
Misses: Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox
Hanshew’s Preseason Ranks: 43 and 63
I ranked Sabonis 43 and Fox 63, and both proceeded to have the best fantasy seasons of their careers, finishing 22 and 41, respectively. Fox improved significantly in the efficiency department and operated as a tremendous scorer and solid facilitator. Sabonis led the league in rebounds per game and handed out a career-high 7.3 dimes. I wasn’t expecting such monster efforts from either.
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Raphielle Johnson’s Hits and Misses
Hit: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Johnson’s Preseason Rank: 17
SGA entered the season with a Yahoo ADP of 49.3, which I thought was way too low for him. The assumption of more than a few folks was that Oklahoma City would tank, and the front office wouldn’t need much motivation to shut down Gilgeous-Alexander. For me, even the risk of that did not outweigh the reward, given how well he played last season in 56 appearances. As we all know, SGA finished this season ranked third in 8- and 9-cat per-game value according to Basketball Monster, and he was the choice of two of us to be fantasy MVP.
Hit: Dejounte Murray
Johnson’s Preseason Rank: 32
After finishing his final season in San Antonio as a top-10 player in 9-cat, per-game value, many of us expected his fantasy value to take a hit playing alongside Trae Young. His value ultimately dropped two rounds, with Murray ending the regular season ranked No. 33 according to Basketball Monster. That lower than his Yahoo ADP of 21.1, so maybe some didn’t anticipate as big of a drop as what we got. Murray’s in an interesting spot ahead of next season, even with the Hawks front office doing what they could to dispel the trade rumors surrounding Trae Young.
Hit: Klay Thompson
Johnson’s Preseason Rank: 66
I didn’t expect to see “pre-injuries Klay” this season, but I did believe he’d be a solid middle-round player in shallow leagues. That’s how things played out, with Thompson appearing in 69 games and averaging 21.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 4.4 3-pointers in 33.0 minutes. If there’s been an issue for Thompson since the ACL and Achilles injuries, it’s been the decrease in his 2-point field goal percentage, as he made 47.0% of his attempts this season (his lowest mark since the 2013-14 season -- 46.4%). But the overall value, especially from three, made him a safe mid-round option.
Miss: Clint Capela
Johnson’s Preseason Rank: 97
While I believed that the expectations of some that Onyeka Okongwu would become a focal point in the middle for the Hawks were out of whack, that noise may have impacted my ranking of Capela. I ranked him well below Yahoo ADP (77.1), and he finished the season as a top-50 player in 9-cat formats. Meanwhile, managers still got solid value out of Okongwu (just outside the top-75), well above his Yahoo ADP of 119.1. Capela is under contract for two more seasons, and I’ll look at this as another lesson in not letting the assumptions of others influence my opinions too much.
Miss: O.G. Anunoby
Johnson’s Preseason Rank: 136
There’s really no excuse for this one; I probably deserve to be on the wrong end of a fantasy questioning along the lines of the interrogation scene in “Menace To Society” over this. Anunoby entered the season with a Yahoo ADP of 61.8, and he finished ranked just outside the top-25 in 9-cat formats. I’ve got him locked into a top-30 spot at minimum for next season, and that’s before we find out what will happen with pending free agent Fred VanVleet.
Miss: Josh Hart
Johnson’s Preseason Rank: 167
Even if we look at how being traded to the Knicks impacted Hart’s value, he was a solid fantasy player while in Portland. In those 51 games, he averaged 9.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.1 steals, and 0.7 3-pointers in 33.4 minutes, shooting 50.4% from the field and 73.1% from the foul line. Those numbers placed Hart just outside the top 100 in 9-cat formats, well above where I had him in my rankings. As for his games with the Knicks: Hart was close to a top-50 player despite coming off the bench in 24 of his 25 appearances.