With five months until the 2026 NFL season kicks off it’s now time to lock myself into rookie takes from which I can never escape.
I’m kidding, sort of. Below are my initial impressions of 2025 rookie landing spots (we talked about first round landing spots in last week’s Rotoworld Football Show if you’re into it). These takes will probably change as we get coaches’ quotes and injury news and everything else that comes in the summertime.
But dynasty players drafting in the coming weeks can’t wait for all that. So here are my thoughts on some 2026 rookies and how they might fare on their new teams.
▶ Best Fantasy Fits
Saints WR Jordyn Tyson
Tyson’s downright unseemly stats and metrics from his dominant 2024 campaign kept him inside the top-10 draft picks last week despite an injury-filled and generally underwhelming 2025 season at ASU.
Tyson really was unstoppable in 2024: He averaged 91.5 receiving yards per game and was among the nation’s most efficient receivers against zone and man coverage. He ended his college career with a 98th percentile target share and a 94th percentile dominator rating. Tyson in his final two collegiate seasons saw a target on an absurd 33 percent of his routes. He also had one of the lowest catchable target rates in the nation (76 percent). That might mean Tyson’s numbers would have been even gaudier had he had decent quarterbacking at ASU.
Now he enters a New Orleans offense without much target competition outside Chris Olave, who led the league in air yards last season and accounted for nearly 32 percent of the Saints’ receiving production. Tyson, who averaged a hearty 125 air yards per game in his final season at ASU, will likely eat into Olave’s sterling air yards profile. Thankfully for the Saints and fantasy folks, Tyler Shough knows what to do with air yards eaters like Olave and Tyson.
Browns WR KC Concepcion
There are, I think, a handful of bullish indicators for Concepcion that can (or should) make us believe he can succeed in Todd Monken’s Cleveland offense this season. That is a sentence I had not expected to write, but the strength of the Browns’ 2026 draft haul offers some hope that these guys know what they’re doing.
Concepcion enters the NFL with a 90th percentile breakout age and a good-enough 80th percentile college target share. He saw a target on 27 percent of his routes at Texas A&M in 2025, and he wasn’t exactly a target-commanding slouch at NC State in 2023 and 2024 (26 percent targets per route rate). Concepcion’s EPA per target in 2025 was on par with Makai Lemon and better than spreadsheet legend Skyler Bell. I don’t care about his drop issues. He’s good and efficient.
Monken during his time in Baltimore knew exactly what to do with a similar player in Zay Flowers. In 2025 Flowers ranked 17th out of 55 qualifying wide receivers in targets per route (25 percent) and posted a borderline elite 2.62 yards per route. If Concepcion takes on a Flowers-like role in the Browns offense he could be enticing for PPR purposes. The Browns’ QB problems could, naturally, cancel out all this analysis, as it does so often.
Falcons WR Zachariah Branch
We’ve learned by now — or we should have learned by now — that wide receiver straight line speed doesn’t matter at all. That the 176-pound Branch ran a 4.35 doesn’t move the proverbial needle for me.
It’s Branch’s target-commanding that interests me. He comes into the NFL with a 70th percentile college target share, seeing a target on an eye-popping 29 percent of his pass routes in 2025. That marks a big jump from his targets per route over two seasons at USC. Any wideout who can command a target on almost one in three routes has my attention.
Branch, it turns out, was efficient with those opportunities. He ranked 15th among all college receivers in EPA per target in 2025. In short, Branch made the spreadsheets sing at Georgia.
We’ve seen Wan’Dale Robinson function as a usable and sometimes high-end fantasy option in the NFL. Branch compares favorably to Robinson, who is also quite the target commander. And I like Branch’s chances of beating out Jahan Dotson for WR2 duties in the Atlanta offense. That would position the rookie very much as a starting option in 12-team leagues.
Bills WR Skyler Bell
Some are calling Bell, a spreadsheet marvel at UConn, “Ja’Marr Chase Lite.” You’re hearing this more and more.
I know he’s old for a rookie (23) but every rookie is ancient now. His efficiency metrics at UConn should have put Bell in the second-round conversation, in one blogger’s humble, metrics-poisoned opinion.
Bell had a 92nd percentile college dominator rating. He had a 99th percentile college target share. Bell in 2025 was second in receiving yards, seventh in yards per route run, and top-20 in yards after the catch per reception. His 2025 weighted opportunity rating was elite.
No one seemed to care, except the Bills, who may have wanted a slot guy who can do something more than catch bubble screens. Bell is a target commanding, missed tackle forcing, highly efficient pass catcher. I think he has a real chance of catching the attention of new Bills head coach Joe Brady and Josh Allen, who’s in desperate need of a wideout who can get open and do something with the football.
▶ Okay Fantasy Fits
Titans WR Carnell Tate
I just can’t care too much about a wideout prospect with a 60th percentile college dominator rating and a 48th percentile college target share. On top of that Tate tested poorly at the NFL Combine. On top of that he was targeted on a less-than-dominant 23 percent of his pass routes in 2025.
One thing I can’t shake in my Tate skepticism: He led college football last year in EPA per target by a pretty healthy margin. The guy’s per-target efficiency and contested catch metrics were true outliers.
It’s fairly incredible that a receiver who had 1,600 total yards over three college seasons can be taken inside the top-5. This fantasy blogger does not understand.
Tate should probably be rostered in 12-team leagues this season if managers have to start 3-4 wideouts every week. I guess he could emerge as Cam Ward’s top option. What does that mean? Unless Ward takes a Josh Allen-type Year Two turn, not much. It’s tough to envision Tate out-targeting Wan’Dale Robinson. If Tate’s 2025 efficiency carries over into 2026, he won’t need that many looks from Ward to maintain fantasy relevance.
Eagles WR Makai Lemon
With the Eagles primed to (finally) move on from A.J. Brown, Lemon should quickly slot in as the team’s No. 2 wideout behind DeVonta Smith.
The problem for Lemon is that when the Philadelphia offense is working as intended, it is one of the most run heavy units in the NFL — one that doesn’t generate the sort of pass volume, targets, and air yards to support more than one high-end fantasy wideout. Unless, of course, those wideouts tend to be ultra-efficient with their opportunities.
Lemon, a yards after the catch machine, could be just that in 2026. He notched a top-20 EPA per target among all college receivers last season and sported an 86th percentile college target share. That along with his draft capital suggests the Eagles will get him the ball without much issue.
Jalen Hurts has had his struggles and is now subject to a coordinated PR attack from within Eagles headquarters. But for what Lemon might need to succeed, Hurts can deliver. Last year Hurts ranked 11th in accuracy on short pass attempts (1-9 yards). His adjusted yards per attempt on those throws was in line with Josh Allen and Dak Prescott. In 2024, no quarterback was more accurate than Hurts on short throws. He led the league in adjusted yards per attempt on such tosses.
Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza
Mendoza, who was fully committed to dapping up every member of the Mendoza family last Thursday night, is not going to start Week 1 for the Raiders. That’s what the team wants you to believe, and after extending Kirk Cousins’ historic string of bag-getting, I think I believe them.
Entering the league with some overlooked red flags, Mendoza will be little more than a superflex option in 2026. Film knowers say Mendoza is a good fit for Klint Kubiak’s offense, and Brock Bowers alone should elevate Mendoza’s 2026 floor.
In a normal draft I think Mendoza would have gone well outside the top-ten picks. In 2026, with no elite players available, he was the clear-cut No. 1 pick. That won’t mean anything for fantasy.
▶ Worst Fantasy Fits
Jets TE Kenyon Sadiq
They’re calling me the most unhinged Sadiq hater alive today after my analysis questioning whether Sadiq is any good on any level. I thought it was still legal to ask questions!
He’s insanely fast and strong. People like that. I don’t care about any of that. Like you, I care about production and fantasy points. Sadiq isn’t going to deliver either in New York. If he manages to be something more than a rotational tight end (alongside Mason Taylor) who sometimes gets cool gadget stuff called for him, Sadiq could have deeper league value, I suppose.
We talked on the Rotoworld Football Show about the Jets seemingly going all in on a YAC-based passing attack in 2026. At least it’s something. Geno Smith over the past two seasons has been 14th and 17th, respectively, in accuracy on throws between 1-9 yards. I think it can work; the question for Sadiq is whether he’ll run enough routes and see enough looks to make it work.
In best ball drafts, Sadiq is going just ahead of Travis Kelce, who will score roughly four times as many fantasy points in 2026.
Cardinals RB Jeremiyah Love
It’s not that Love was an unimpressive prospect. He wasn’t. Love, coming out of Notre Dame, had a solid profile that (strongly) suggested he could be a lead back in the NFL, maybe even a three-down guy.
His landing spot stinks in myriad ways. There’s zero chance the Cardinals are going to let James Conner -- every coach’s favorite running back -- and free agency signing Tyler Allgeier rot on the sideline in 2026. NFL coaches love when big running backs barrel into the end zone. It’s their favorite thing next to taking the points in the second half. So Allgeier is going to get quite a few valuable looks near the goal line this season. Conner could split early-down work with Love. It’s all bad, unless, of course, Arizona suffers a spate of backfield injuries.
It all comes down to whether Love sees pass-catching work out of the Arizona backfield, as we talked about on a recent Rotoworld Football Show. That Love posted a 77th percentile running back target share at Notre Dame and had a respectable 1.85 yards per route run in 2025 is enough to believe he could be the guy catching screen passes from Jacoby Brissett or Carson Beck with the Cardinals down three scores in the fourth quarter. So he has that going for him, which is nice.
