A rare NFL three-way is now firmly in play.
With the Falcons beating the Rams on Monday night, 27-24, Saturday’s standalone Buccaneers-Panthers game is no longer a true NFC South championship game.
Yes, Carolina wins the division with a victory in Tampa. If the Bucs win, however, the division won’t be decided until the next day, when the Falcons host the Saints.
If the Buccaneers beat the Panthers on Saturday and the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Atlanta would each finish 8-9. The ensuring three-team tie would go to the Panthers, based on a 3-1 record in the round robin among the division rivals.
A three-team tie atop a division last happened in 2011, when the Broncos won the AFC West at 8-8. The Chargers and Raiders also finished 8-8, with the Chiefs at 7-9.
A loss by Atlanta on Sunday (following a Tampa win on Saturday) would leave only Carolina and Tampa Bay tied. The two-way tiebreaker goes to the Bucs, based on record against common opponents. That would give Tampa Bay it’s fifth straight division tile and sixth consecutive playoff berth.
For that reason alone, some thought the NFL would schedule Panthers-Bucs and Saints-Falcons for 1:00 p.m. ET (or 4:25 p.m. ET) on Sunday. Instead, the Panthers will face with Buccaneers, with the possibility of a major asterisk being applied to the outcome, if the Bucs snap out of a four-game funk and get the win.
The Panthers and the Buccaneers were playing at the same time on Sunday and the Panthers made the decision not to show Tampa’s score at Bank of America Stadium in order to keep players focused on the task at hand.
When the game was over, Panthers players learned that the Bucs lost to the Dolphins. Had the Panthers won, they would have clinched the NFC South but they lost 27-10 to set up a Week 18 Saturday game for all the marbles in Tampa.
Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn admitted after the game that it made the loss a bit more painful while also saying that it didn’t change much about the team’s outlook.
“I mean, yeah, a little bit, yeah, a little bit,” Horn said, via the team’s website. “But our mindset was we’re going to have, we were going to have to go to Tampa Bay and win anyway, so we just got to go do that.”
The Panthers will win the division by beating the Bucs and there’s also a scenario where they win the division with a loss if the Falcons win out, but taking care of business themselves is the easier path back to the postseason. That made flushing the loss to the Seahawks as quickly as possible the biggest talking point in the locker room on Sunday afternoon and we’ll see how well they accomplished that task when they take the field next weekend.
After the conclusion of Sunday’s thrilling matchup between the 49ers and Bears, we now know the full Week 18 schedule to conclude the NFL’s 2025 regular season.
The matchup that could decide the NFC South is up first on Saturday afternoon, with the Panthers heading to Florida to take on the Buccaneers at 4:30 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN.
The Seahawks and 49ers will follow that game at 8 p.m. ET with their matchup that will decide the NFC West crown along with the NFC’s No. 1 seed and the bye week that comes with it. That game will also be televised on ABC and ESPN.
Notably, the Broncos will host the Chargers at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday on CBS. If they win, they’ll clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Patriots, who are also in contention for the No. 1 seed, will host the Dolphins at the same time on Fox.
Looking to clinch the No. 2 overall seed in the NFC, the Bears will host the Lions at 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox. The Eagles will host the Commanders at the same time on CBS with a shot at taking the No. 2 seed if the Bears lose.
The Ravens and Steelers will close the regular season on NBC at 8:20 p.m. with a battle for the AFC North.
For those on milestone watch, Myles Garrett and the Browns will play the Bengals at 1 p.m. ET on CBS with the defensive end one sack away from breaking the NFL’s single-season record.
Below is the full Week 18 schedule (all times Eastern):
SATURDAY
Panthers at Buccaneers, 4:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Seahawks at 49ers, 8 p.m., ABC/ESPN
SUNDAY
Packers at Vikings, 1 p.m., CBS
Browns at Bengals, 1 p.m., CBS
Colts at Texans, 1 p.m., CBS
Cowboys at Giants, 1 p.m., FOX
Saints at Falcons, 1 p.m., FOX
Titans at Jaguars, 1 p.m., FOX
Chargers at Broncos, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Chiefs at Raiders, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Commanders at Eagles, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Jets at Bills, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Dolphins at Patriots, 4:25 p.m., FOX
Cardinals at Rams, 4:25 p.m., FOX
Lions at Bears, 4:25 p.m., FOX
Ravens at Steelers, 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock
The Buccaneers lost for the seventh time in their last eight games on Sunday, but the curtain hasn’t dropped on their season yet.
Carolina’s loss to the Seahawks means that the Bucs will have a chance to win the NFC South and advance to the playoffs by beating the Panthers at home in Week 18. They don’t control their own destiny because the Panthers would win a three-way tiebreaker with the Falcons, but just being alive given the way they’ve played over the second half of the season is enough for quarterback Baker Mayfield to recognize their good fortune.
“Offensively, it comes back to execution,” Mayfield said, via the team’s website. “We gave ourselves a fighting chance right there but didn’t do enough. Those turnovers obviously crushed us. We still have a chance next week. We’ve been blessed with a chance next week and we’ve got to handle it the right way.”
The Bucs haven’t shown that they’re capable of that kind of performance in quite some time, but the Panthers haven’t been the model of consistency either and playing at home should benefit a team that is trying to win the division with a losing record for the second time in the last four years.
Does anyone want to win the NFC South?
The Buccaneers lost to the Dolphins on Sunday, and the Panthers lost to the Seahawks. Next week, the 7-9 Bucs host the 8-8 Panthers, with the division title on the line.
If the Bucs beat the Panthers, both teams would be 8-9. The Buccaneers would win the tiebreaker, based on common games.
But there’s a caveat. A big one. The Falcons. They’re 6-9. If they win the last two (Rams, Saints) and if the Bucs beat the Panthers, there would be a three-way tie atop the division. (The last three-way tie happened in 2011, when the Chargers, Broncos, and Raiders finished 8-8. Denver won the division.)
In a three-way tiebreaker, the Panthers would win the division by virtue of the best record in the three-way round robin. By virtue of a sweep of the Falcons, the Panthers would be 3-1, and the Bucs would be 2-2.
So the Panthers can lose to the Bucs and win the division, if the Falcons win out. Which will make the Panthers into massive Rams fans on Monday night.
