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PFT’s 2023 Week 3 NFL picks, Florio vs. Simms

Week 1 was not good for me. Week 2 was much better.

Cemented by the Steelers beating the Browns on Monday night (I attended the game, but that’s not me in the photo), I outpaced Simms 4-1 in our five head-to-head disagreements. I now lead him by one game, 18-14 versus 17-15.

We both stunk against the spread, however; he was 3-12-1 and I went 5-10-1. (For the year, he’s 14-17-1 and I’m 13-18-1.)

This week, we disagree on four games. All picks are posted below. The full video is here. Clips will end up here and throughout the weekend in various PFT blurbs.

Giants at 49ers (-10.5)

We both think this one would be worse if the 49ers had a full week to prepare. Even with only three full days between games, coach Kyle Shanahan should be able to overwhelm an overmatched Giants team on both sides of the ball.

Florio: 49ers, 30-17.

Simms: 49ers, 30-17.

Colts at Ravens (-7.5)

The Ravens continue to benefit from some easy games in their early-season schedule, especially if the Colts don’t have Anthony Richardson.

Florio: Ravens, 27-17.

Simms: Ravens, 27-17.

Titans at Browns (-3.5)

Cleveland has lost the heart and soul of its offense in Nick Chubb. Deshaun Watson is still a far cry from who he used to be. The Titans are scrappy enough to hang around and steal it.

Florio: Titans, 20-17.

Simms: Titans, 20-17.

Falcons at Lions (-3)

The Lions need this one. The Falcons won’t go quietly. It’s our first disagreement of the week.

Florio: Lions, 30-23.

Simms: Falcons, 24-21.

Saints at Packers (-2)

New Orleans has been very good, but this is Green Bay’s home opener. They lost one they should have won last week. The Pack get back on track, especially with the Lions looming.

Florio: Packers, 28-23.

Simms: Packers, 24-20.

Texans at Jaguars (-9)

The Jags know the time has come to wake up the offense. A perfect opponent for it is coming to town.

Florio: Jaguars, 31-20.

Simms: Jaguars, 27-14.

Broncos at Dolphins (-6.5)

Denver has not been impressive so far, losing a pair of winnable games at home against non-juggernaut teams. The Dolphins have looked great. I think this one could get ugly; Simms sees it as being much closer.

Florio: Dolphins, 38-21.

Simms: Dolphins, 27-23.

Chargers at Vikings (-1)

It’s not quite desperation time for these two teams, but it’s close. We agree it will be a shootout. We differ on the outcome.

Florio: Vikings, 35-31.

Simms: Chargers, 30-28.

Patriots (-3) at Jets

The HC of the NEP will continue his mastery of the NYJ.

Florio: Patriots, 23-17.

Simms: Patriots, 20-13.

Bills (-6.5) at Commanders

The Commanders have struggled to beat a pair of work-in-progress teams. The Bills showed great progress in making quick work of the Raiders.

Florio: Bills, 31-21.

Simms: Bills, 23-20.

Panthers at Seahawks (-6)

Bryce Young is already banged up. The Seahawks banged around the Lions. They should be able to handle Carolina.

Florio: Seahawks, 24-17.

Simms: Seahawks, 24-13.

Cowboys (-12.5) at Cardinals

The best team in the league faces one of the worst. Look away.

Florio: Cowboys, 40-24.

Simms: Cowboys, 31-14.

Bears at Chiefs (-12.5)

The Bears are already imploding. The Chiefs’ offense is on the verge of exploding.

Florio: Chiefs, 34-20.

Simms: Chiefs, 31-17.

Steelers at Raiders (-3)

Pittsburgh makes its first visit to Las Vegas, six days after pulling an inside straight against the Browns. If it’s close, look for Mike Tomlin to find a way to cash in.

Florio: Steelers, 24-21.

Simms: Raiders, 24-21.

Eagles (-5) at Buccaneers

The Eagles are winning a little bit ugly. Another ugly win could be on deck.

Florio: Eagles, 24-21.

Simms: Eagles, 21-17.

Rams at Bengals (-2.5)

It’s a Super Bowl LVI rematch, with a difference of opinion as to the winner. Simms believes in the Bengals. I’m concerned Joe Burrow’s calf could be an issue.

Florio: Rams, 27-23.

Simms: Bengals, 23-20.