No one at Manchester United should be getting carried away with Sunday’s 2-1 win at Liverpool, but it was clear from Harry Maguire’s words how deeply their long-sought win meant for the spirit of the (relatively) long-suffering club.
The Red Devils often speak about what it means to be a member of Manchester United and Maguire has heard it all under several leaders during his time at the club. United becoming a contender again would feel like restored order to so many at the club.
Beating a historic rival in their hours helps that.
“You see all week in the build-up a lot of Juan Mata’s goals and Wayne’s goals that won games for our club [at Liverpool],” Maguire said. “I’m sure in a few years time we’ll look back at my header.”
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Mentally, it feels like United are in a decent place. Their owner suffered through a tumultuous year last season but one thing he had to get right was the hiring and stewardship of Ruben Amorim’s reign. That part, he’s nailed. Amorim’s known he’s safe but the leaders had to deal with the outside noise until the Portuguese posted results more typical of United’s standing in the league. So far, so okay.
The underlying numbers say United are further along that many people think. They don’t have to face European competition this season and will usually only have one game a week. So there’s an opportunity to take this season, but can they take it? And how big of an opportunity is it?
What is Manchester United’s season ceiling following huge win at Liverpool?
Let’s set the table here by noting that numbers, not feeling, are driving this post. It was planned prior to the game but not written until well after the final whistle. Would it have arrived following a dominated 3-0 loss to Liverpool? Perhaps still, but United won and deserved nothing less than a point. The three will do them just fine.
Consider the following. Manchester United have faced the third-toughest schedule through eight weeks. Only West Ham and Liverpool have faced a better run of opponents in the league. Despite all this:
- Ruben Amorim’s men have run up an 89-54 shot attempt advantage in open play through eight games. Despite this advantage, they’ve allowed 10 goals while scoring just six during those moments. That’s a minus-4 goal differential in open play despite a +3.32 xG differential (Understat).
- They’ve also produced the second-most xG in all phases of the game, their 15.3 xG ahead of Man City and trailing only Crystal Palace. It has to be noted here that their expected goals allowed is very poor (18th).
- Bruno Fernandes’ move to a deeper-lying midfield spot has hurt them defensively but also unlocked his superb vision, as his 22 created chances are five more than any other player this young season.
- Man United have been a top team at producing carries into the penalty area. They sit fifth, but are as close to second as seventh (Man City is obliterating the field, but that’s a post for another day).
- Bryan Mbeumo’s finishing hadn’t been strong up to Sunday’s early goal at Liverpool, but entering Sunday’s game he had the seventh-most touches in the attacking third and the eighth-most in the opposition’s 18-yard box.
There’s bad news, too. United’s defensive metrics are not strong and their 1v1 abilities are not delivering chances. That usually means the system is working to get the ball to players in space and Amorim’s bunch are among the league leaders in long distance completions, but the magic makers are doing their thing through combination play, not singular heroics.
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So what is their ceiling? A lot of things have to go right, but the top five is not a crazy proposition if they can take advantage of the fixture list into early January.
The tough run of early fixtures means that the 11 opponents left to face twice this season are not a particularly-dangerous bunch. And their embarrassing League Cup exit at Grimsby Town does have at least one benefit as the Red Devils have nothing aside from Premier League action until the FA Cup kicks off in mid-January.
These are Manchester United’s next 13 matches, which will come while many of their would-be European foes are dealing with European congestion.
- Saturday vs Brighton
- Nov. 1 at Nottingham Forest
- Nov. 8 at Spurs
- Nov. 24 vs Everton
- Nov. 30 at Crystal Palace
- December 4 vs West Ham
- December 8 at Wolves
- December 15 vs Bournemouth
- December 21 at Aston Villa
- December 27 vs Newcastle United
- December 30 vs Wolves
- January 3 at Leeds
- January 7 at Burnley
The points hauls for the most recent fourth-place teams in the Premier League were 69, 68, 71, 71, and 67. The average is 69.2.
Let’s call it 70, which is 28 more points than United earned last season. And to be fair, they’ve hit 74 and 75 over the past five seasons.
United would love to be ahead of that pace by the time they’ve faced everyone once. The math is imperfect as Amorim’s crew will have met Wolves twice before they first see Leeds. But let’s draw a line before New Year’s Day.
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Can United have 35 or more points by then, setting them up for the January transfer window and the chance to match that total over the final 19 games?
They are on 13 points now, so the easiest math is winning eight of 11 games to reach 37 points after December 30 at home to Wolves.
It’s honestly a huge ask to return to the top four with this team but the lack of Europe this season does allow the imagination some freedom. But doing this math does say that Amorim’s crew can easily imagine a route to the Europa League or Conference League.
Most odds sites we checked give United the sixth-best numbers to reach the top four, behind Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Spurs, and just ahead of Newcastle. That seems about right but, again, all of the teams favored more than United have a lot more games to play (as well as a lot more depth).
Is fourth place a bridge too far?
