Last week we took the week off from golf betting due to the lack of perceived value on the board. It’s a good thing too, because I wouldn’t have landed on the eventual John Deere winner, Sepp Straka. No worries, my fellow betting friends; we are back to our regularly programmed golf betting schedule this week. Luckily, we have another stacked field for this week’s co-sanctioned (PGA Tour and DP World Tour) event.
This week’s Scottish Open is played at The Renaissance Club. Welcome to Scottish Links style golf. The 7,237-yard par 70 course is a mix of everything great about Scottish golf courses. Driving distance here is a golfer’s friend, and they won’t get overly penalized for missing fairways. The Renaissance Club’s most prominent defense is the weather. This week, much like others, the weather feels random. It ranges from partly sunny to possible storms. The wind is just as random. At times it’s projected to be as low as 8 MPH to as high as 30 MPH.
Generally, I’d advise waiting on the weather and tee times before making outright bets. However, with the prices I found, I don’t want to wait. Three golfers have prices that I am excited about betting.
Key Metrics Correlated to Success
- Driving Distance
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- SG: Approach
- Birdie or Better Gained
- Par-5 Scoring
- 3-Putt Avoidance
Picks to Win 2023 Genesis Scottish Open
Jordan Spieth +2635
All three golfers I bet on this week’s odds were found on Pinnacle Sportsbook. The first golfer that caught my attention was Spieth. The phrase “Links specialist” will get thrown around after this week. Many golfers in this field play well on links-style courses, but not many benefit as much as Spieth. Calling him a links specialist makes sense. Spieth’s game is best suited for courses where missing the fairways isn’t penal, and strong wedge play gives him the upper hand. That’s precisely what The Renaissance Club offers.
My colleague Josh Culp had great phrasing for Spieth this week in his DSF Dish article, “Go Boom or Bust with Jordan Spieth.” Spieth enters this week on the backside of a missed cut, but in his last seven tournaments, he’s finished inside the top five three times. Spieth enters this week with likely the longest odds we will see him all season at a course that should fit his skillset, which makes it almost mandatory for me to bet on him this week. I mean, he’s either winning this week or next week at The Open, right?
Matt Fitzpatrick +2895
Fitzpatrick comes into this week playing excellent golf. He finished top 10 at the Masters, won the RBC Heritage in March, and added another top 10 during his finish at the Memorial. Much like Spieth, Fitzpatrick sometimes struggles with accuracy off the tee. With the lack of punishment for missing fairways, should Fitzpatrick begin missing fairways, he can still contend here. In addition to Fitzpatrick’s recent form, success overseas, and loyalty to the DP World Tour, I am happy to back the Englishman this week. Fitzpatrick has seen success here, finishing in the top 10 in his last two trips. That said, I’m backing the ninth-ranked golfer in the world who comes into this tournament in form and with a ton of success at this course.
Rickie Fowler +2400
The golfing community let off a collective sigh of relief when Fowler bounced back and won his first tournament since 2019. Generally, I’d shy away from backing a golfer in their first tournament since such an emotional win, but it’s tough to ignore how great Fowler is playing. Outside of Scottie Scheffler, no one in the world is playing better golf than Fowler. Over the last 36 rounds, he’s second in SG: Total, fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green, and fourth in SG: App. Right now, I have to take the chance on Fowler.
