Uhh, so Russell Westbrook is ridiculous. After last night’s 27-point, 18-board, 14-dime game at Madison Square Garden, he’s now averaging a triple-double with 30.9 points, 10.3 boards, and 11.3 assists on the season. His rebounding numbers have been absolutely crazy lately and he ranks third in the NBA in his last 11 games (Hassan Whiteside and DeAndre Jordan). He’s also first in dimes and first in points over that span.
His usage rate is like nothing we’ve ever seen at 40.0 on the season. That’s way ahead of No. 2 man Joel Embiid’s 37.7 on the year. Westbrook almost seems like a lock to break the NBA record for usage rate in a season, which is Kobe Bryant’s 38.7 in 2005-06.
While is usage is soaring, Westbrook’s efficiency has fallen off quite a bit. Over his last six games, Westbrook’s 40.5 usage rate is greater than his 38.8 percent from the field. Thanks to going to the line nine times, he’s still at a 49.9 true shooting percentage. Here’s what his shot chart looks like in this span:
Yikes. He’s way below league average on all ranges on twos, and he’s actually more efficient on his 3-pointers and those midrange shots are brutal for 30.3 percent of his shot total.
Obviously teams are doubling him and forcing him to take contested shots. In that six-game span, he’s faced tight defense on 62.3 percent of his shot totals. Worst yet in that span, he’s made just 9-of-35 (25.7 percent) of his tightly-contested shots from at least 10 feet. That’s a problem.
The triple-doubles are awesome and obviously DFS owners are cashing in basically every time he plays. On the other hand, the lack of efficiency is part of the reason OKC is only 16th in offensive rating this season. OKC may not be great, but fantasy owners will continue to see monster Westy lines all year.
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The Magic are bad. They only have a 49.0 true shooting percentage on the year, which puts them on pace to have the worst true shooting percentage since the Charlotte Bobcats in 2011-12. Besides that awful Bobcats team, nobody else has been that low since 2004. Here’s what the Magic shot chart looks like this year:
Yuck. They’re wasting 25 percent of their shots on mid-range jumpers and they’re not getting in the paint enough. That’s surprising considering they’re one of a handful of teams almost never going small.
Ryan Knaus and I talked about the Magic on the podcast yesterday, so feel free to check that out. The short version is Nikola Vucevic in the second unit makes sense and the Aaron Gordon at the three experiment is failing miserably.
The Mavs are also bad on the inside these days. In fact, their 31.9 points in the paint per game is on pace to be the lowest for a season since the 2007-08 Blazers.
Related to this is Harrison Barnes has 33.6 percent of his points coming off midrange shots. Here’s what Harry B’s shot chart looks like:
That is a lot of midrange. Close to half of his shots from the field are midrange (45.1 percent). He’s actually been really good at the rim, but the problem is he’s not getting there enough.
While his total FGAs have increased 8.3 per game, Harry B’s 3-pointers have decreased 0.3. He is having a solid season, but his efficiency has dropped from a solid 55.9 true shooting percentage last year to just 52.8. He’s also seen his usage rate jump from 15.9 last year to 26.3 this season.
For fantasy, Barnes is going to shoot the ball a ton and he’s even a seventh-round guy on the season despite not doing much on defense and the dip in treys. At least he’s not turning the ball over.
Speaking of small forwards related to Golden State, you may have heard that the Warriors upgraded to Kevin Durant. KD’s defense has actually been really good on the year. Heck, his six blocks on Saturday are double Harry B’s blocks for the season.
Obviously when you think of KD, it’s not because of his defense. He’s currently leading the NBA in true shooting percentage at an absurd 68.1. Here’s what his shot chart looks like this season.
That is just not fair. He’s way above league average everywhere, especially at the rim and from 3-point range. He’s the No. 1 player in standard leagues right now thanks to that ridiculous efficiency, a bump boards, the increase in blocks, and he even has an increase in steals. KD also has a career-low 2.3 turnovers per game.
He’s the real MVP right now.
KD doesn’t lead the NBA in overall field goal percentage. That honor goes to Rudy Gobert with his 62.9 percent from the field in his 18 games. He’s even trending up with a 64.7 percent in November and his usage is on the rise, too. Here’s his shot chart:
All of his makes are from within eight feet with only four of those from the 3-8 foot range. In other words, Gobert is getting perhaps the easiest shots in the NBA, which is a credit to his teammates.
He’s had a terrific rapport with George Hill, who is tied for the most assists to Gobert on the year despite how Hill missed so much time due to a thumb injury. Gobert has a decent chance to be right at the top for field goal percentage the rest of the way.
He’s also been very good at the line in his last eight, making 74 percent of his attempts in that span. Gobert is up to top-40 value on the year with a nice upward trend. The return of Hill should help him even more as a guy who could be a second- or third-round player in standard leagues.
Speaking of George Hill, he’s been awesome this year. He’s ranked No. 2 for true shooting percentage with his 67.1. On the year, he’s posting averages of 21.2 points, 3.8 boards, 4.2 assists, 1.1 steals and 2.4 treys on 54.3 percent from the field and 87.8 percent from the line. He’s 44.4 percent from deep and is flirting with the 50/40/90 club in his 10 games.
The Jazz are 7-3 with Hill in the lineup thanks to him turning a 72.1 TS% in those wins. Hill probably won’t be a first-round guy like he is now, but he has a great chance to be an early-round player.
The Grizzlies are in deep, deep trouble. Mike Conley is expected to miss the next six weeks due to a transverse process fracture in the vertebrae. This is an injury Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo suffered earlier in his career and it’s a very tough one to recover from.
Conley was having an awesome season despite some minute limitations. Obviously his fantasy owners have to hold tight and hope he can make it back within those six weeks.
Until then, it’ll be Andrew Harrison running the offense. He’s in a brutal shooting slump all season, making just 27.1 percent from the field on the year. He’s played a lot of shooting guard, which hasn’t been a great role for him as a sub-par scorer. Now, he’ll be playing straight one and should have around 5-6 dimes per game with good steal numbers. He’s worth a pickup to see if the new role gets him going. We’ll also see more offense go through Marc Gasol, who should be very, very busy.
Wade Baldwin IV was going to spend a big chunk of time in the D-League, but not anymore. He’s also played off the ball a ton, making just 33.3 percent from the field. Baldwin’s upside is a little higher than Harrison, but he’s going to struggle for long stretches this year. If Harrison is already gone, I’d give Baldwin a look in 14-team leagues.
