Here in “Notable Numbers,” we attempt to unearth a plethora of interesting stats and fantasy-relevant facts each week. Today we discuss surprising and impressive early-season production from De’Aaron Fox, Pascal Siakam, Derrick Rose and Zach LaVine.
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Swiper Now Swiping
De’Aaron Fox entered the 2017-18 season with plenty of optimism. The Kings selected Fox with the fifth overall pick in the 2017 draft, and the young rookie was brimming with confidence at the outset of his rookie campaign. However, his first month in the NBA served as a harsh introductory period. Over his first 14 games, De’Aaron shot just 39.2 percent from the floor and 19.2 percent from downtown. Through his first 30 games, Fox was averaging 9.2 points, 3.7 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.4 triples and 2.2 turnovers in 25.1 minutes, while slashing 40.2% from the field and 28.9% from 3-point territory.
Fox has turned it around as a sophomore. He’s been one of the NBA’s most pleasant surprises over the first four weeks of the 2018-19 campaign. Through the Kings first 14 games this season, Fox is averaging 18.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 1.4 treys and 1.3 steals in 32.7 minutes, while shooting 50.8 percent from the floor and 44.2 percent from downtown. Add it all up, and Fox ranks 65th overall in nine-category fantasy leagues.
Only one other player in the NBA is currently averaging at least 18 points and seven dimes while also shooting over 50 percent. That player is LeBron James.
Coming into this season, I was worried about Fox carving out 30-plus minutes a night due to the crowded backcourt in Sacramento. Fellow point guard Frank Mason had outplayed Fox at times last season, and the Kings signed Yogi Ferrell to a lucrative multi-year deal over the summer. However, Ferrell has spent most of his time at shooting guard, and Mason has been nowhere near as productive as Fox. With the surging Kings jumping out to an 8-6 record after beating the Spurs on Monday, De’Aaron has earned every second he’s received thus far, and he’ll likely continue to play all the minutes he can handle moving forward.
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Sock’em Siakam
Raptors forward Pascal Siakam was an afterthought heading into fantasy drafts back in early October.
A late, first-round pick by Toronto in 2016, he averaged just 4.2 points in 15.6 minutes as a rookie. Last year, he was at 7.3 points in 20.7 minutes, and ranked 188th overall in nine-cat leagues. However, in this, his third pro season, Siakam has made “The Leap.”
Not only is he fantasy-relevant, he’s been a difference-maker thus far, stuffing the stat sheet on a nightly basis. Over the Raptors past eight games, Siakam is averaging 18.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.6 steals in 31.3 minutes, while shooting a scorching 67.9 percent from the floor and 83.9% from the charity stripe. Believe it or not, over this current 16-day stretch, Siakam ranks ninth overall in nine-category formats, just ahead of Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid, who rank 10th, 11tth and 12th respectively.
He sits at 43rd overall on the season, despite averaging just 20.7 minutes per contest over the Raps first five games. Now that’s he established himself as a full-time starter and has been a crucial cog in Toronto’s strong 12-2 start, it’s safe to assume he will continue to see consistently heavy minutes going forward.
While his shooting percentage will eventually regress to the mean (he’s shooting an unsustainable, league-leading 72.4% on shots taken inside the 3-point arc), I’m confident predicting he will still do enough to maintain top-75 fantasy value for the rest of the year. If his current owner does not properly value him, try to swing a deal.
Rose is Reborn
While Siakim’s emergence from relative obscurity has been surprising, Derrick Rose’s re-emergence onto the fantasy radar has been downright shocking.
After becoming the youngest MVP in league history as a 22-year old back in 2010-11, Rose had his career derailed by a torrent of debilitating injuries. By 2017, he was a complete non-factor in fantasy circles. After a disappointing stretch at the start of the 2017-18 season in Cleveland, he was dealt to Utah. The Jazz immediately waived him and he re-joined his old buddy, coach Tom Thibodeau, in Minnesota. In nine appearances for the Wolves, he averaged 5.8 points and 1.2 assists.
With Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones already on the roster, many folks didn’t see the need for Rose this year. However, Thibs brought him back, and Rose has rewarded his coach’s faith.
On the season, Rose is averaging 19.2 points, his highest scoring average since 2011-12. He’s been on an absolute tear since Halloween, when he poured in a career-high 50 points in a win over the Jazz.
Here are his stat lines in each of his last five full games (excluding one game in which he logged only four minutes due to an ankle injury) :
* 50 points, six assists, four rebounds, four 3PT’s
* 21 points, four assists, three rebounds, one 3PT’s
* 31 points, five assists, three rebounds, seven 3PTs
* 21 points, five assists, six rebounds, three 3PT’s
* 23 points, six assists, two rebounds, three 3PT’s
He’s shooting 52.4 percent from the floor, 61.3 percent from downtown and 88% percent from the line over this stretch.
One of the primary reasons for his dramatic increase in scoring has been his uptick in 3-point takes and makes. In 2017-18, D Rose made just seven treys out of his 30 total attempts. Over the last six days, Rose has knocked down 13 treys on 20 attempts.
Over his two previous season’s combined (2017-18 and 17-18) Rose was 20-of-90 from 3-point territory. Over the past two weeks, Rose is 20-for-35 from 3-point land.
Dating back to Halloween, here are the NBA’s per-36 minute scoring leaders:
Joel Embiid: 29.9 points/36 minutes
Kyrie Irving: 29.0
Derrick Rose: 28.1
Russell Westbrook: 28.1
Kevin Durant: 27.3
Rose’s recent increase in playing time and production was directly related to Jeff Teague’s left knee injury, which sidelined Minnesota’s starting point guard for six straight games. However, Teague returned to action Monday vs. the Nets, and Rose remained in the starting lineup. And, even though Teague played 35 minutes on Monday night, Rose logged a team-high 39 minutes.
It remains to be seen how coach Thibodeau will shuffle his lineup following the trade of Jimmy Butler for Robert Covington and Dario Saric, but it’s clear he has the utmost confidence in Rose right now. Thus, there is no reason to assume Derrick’s minutes will be reduced significantly. Yes, Rose’s shooting percentages will regress to the mean, but if he can stay healthy (admittedly a big “if”), Rose should continue to put points in bunches for the Wolves.
The Zach Attack is Back
Two players have seen their scoring average increase by over ten points compared to last season. D Rose is one. Zach LaVine is the other.
When the Bulls decided to match the Kings 4-year, $78 million offer sheet for LaVine this summer, many pundits believed Chicago had overpaid. LaVine had shot just 38.3 percent from the floor in 2017-18, as he worked his way back from ACL surgery. There was skepticism in some circles as to whether or not he’d be able to eventually regain the incredible athleticism that was such an essential part of his all-around game. Welp, just a few weeks into his new contract, LaVine has already made those of us that questioned the Bulls decision look quite foolish.
Through the first 14 games of the season, LaVine is averaging 27.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.1 treys and 1.2 steals. He is the only player in the league have already tallied at least 350 points, 70 rebounds and 50 assists.
The only blemishes on Zach’s resume this season are the abundant turnovers (he leads the NBA in total TO’s) and inaccurate long-range shooting. However, there’s reason to believe he can correct these issues going forward. LaVine is currently carrying a 14.4% turnover rate; yet, each of the last two seasons, his turnover rate has been below 10%.
He’s also shooting just 32.6 percent from downtown this season, despite being a career 37 percent shooter from 3-point range. If he can cut down on his TO’s and shoot a bit better from deep, LaVine’s fantasy stock has a chance to climb even higher.
