This season is shaping up to be the most interesting Rookie of the Year race in a long time. The intense debate about who should have been the top pick in last June’s NBA Draft now carries over to the Rookie of the Year race.
Will No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa in Washington win? Darryn Peterson in Utah? Cameron Boozer in Memphis? Or could we see Caleb Wilson in Chicago, Darius Acuff Jr. in Sacramento or Brayden Burries in Milwaukee rise up and grab the award? It’s going to be a fascinating race, and we asked a panel of NBCSports.com writers to make their predictions. Here they are, but first, here are the current Rookie of the Year betting odds, via DraftKings:
Cameron Boozer +300
Darryn Peterson +330
Caleb Wilson +350
AJ Dybantsa +425
Darius Acuff +1200
NBA 2026-27 Rookie of the Year
Kurt Helin, NBC lead NBA writer: Darryn Peterson, Utah Jazz
Darryn Peterson won me over at Summer League. It wasn’t simply his explosive athleticism — something not displayed enough at Kansas for a variety of reasons — or his confidence. It was the variety in his game and the mental adjustments he was making — he figures things out quickly, and that processing speed will suit him in his NBA career.
the rook goes for 23 at home 🏡
— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) October 7, 2026
let's watch it all again ⤵#PlayerHighlights presented by @zionsbank pic.twitter.com/D8sd8KwvY9
There are good reasons to pick Cameron Boozer to win this award: He has the most polished game of the top rookies and, more importantly, he’s going to have opportunities with the ball in his hands in Memphis. A lot of what I like about Peterson you also can see in AJ Dybantsa, but will he get enough opportunities on a team with Trae Young and contract-year Anthony Davis? The argument against Peterson also is the opportunity one, but I think his fit between Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George is more natural, and Peterson is going to get his chances. In a close race, the fact Peterson isn’t just putting up numbers but should be doing so in meaningful games for a Jazz team ready to be back in the playoffs will put him over the top.
Raphielle Johnson, NBC Sports Fantasy basketball lead analyst: Caleb Wilson, Chicago Bulls
Win-loss record rarely comes into the equation when evaluating Rookie of the Year options, as the early favorites are drafted to poorly performing teams. Individually, Wilson is in a position to flourish immediately. Sharing the court with Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis should give the former North Carolina forward ample opportunities to attack defenses in transition, and he didn’t get to show his full skill set in college. AJ Dybantsa has some vets to share the offensive opportunities with in Washington, while Darryn Peterson isn’t guaranteed to start immediately in Utah. Memphis’ Cameron Boozer may be Wilson’s biggest threat in the ROY race, and Sacramento’s Darius Acuff Jr. is also in a spot to take on a prominent role immediately.
4th overall pick @CalebWilson2025 (team-high 15 PTS) leads Chi-Town to victory in their preseason opener! pic.twitter.com/iJ2SbsrUKt
— NBA (@NBA) October 8, 2026
Jay Croucher, NBC Sports Lead Betting Analyst: Cameron Boozer, Memphis Grizzlies
Boozer projects as the most “pro-ready” of the top picks and also the one with the most immediate path to usage. AJ Dybantsa and Darren Peterson step into teams with established high-usage veterans. Boozer has no such blocker - he should fill up the stat sheet and be a positive impact from the start.
No. 3 overall pick Cameron Boozer showed off his skillset in front of the @memgrizz faithful tonight!
— NBA (@NBA) October 8, 2026
🐻 16 PTS
🐻 6 REB
🐻 4-7 FGM
🐻 2-3 3PM
🐻 22 MIN pic.twitter.com/GoGu1wtCkp
Drew Dinsick, NBC Sports betting analyst: Darryn Peterson, Utah Jazz
This award is typically a proxy for volume, and there are reasonable concerns that Peterson may have a more limited role for the Jazz than his competitors. However, the Jazz are built to compete now and will likely have a top-10 offense, one in which Peterson won’t be the focal point for opposing defenses. His skill set is a perfect complement to breakout point guard Keyonte George, and preseason press makes clear he has already won over his coach and veteran teammates like Jusuf Nurkić and Lauri Markkanen. I expect he’ll earn a spot in the closing five for a team in the playoff hunt. That should be enough to take him over the top against his rivals in Memphis, Chicago and Washington, whose teams will play far fewer meaningful games in the spring.
Noah Rubin, NBC Sports fantasy basketball writer: Cameron Boozer, Memphis Grizzlies
This could be one of the most exciting races for Rookie of the Year in recent history. Obviously the top four picks are the favorites, though there are some others that could start and have an outside chance, such as Mikel Brown Jr., Darius Acuff Jr. and Yaxel Lendeborg. AJ Dybantsa was the top pick and should be a fluid scorer from day one, but there is a lot of competition for shots and touches in Washington. Darryn Peterson may run into the same issue in Utah. Caleb Wilson should make a two-way impact immediately and be a productive play finisher for Chicago, but usage concerns could pop up there as well.
To me, Boozer is the safest pick to win the award, but it isn’t simply because there aren’t other strong candidates. There is a real chance the offense runs through Boozer from day one, and he should be more efficient than the other top rookies. We’ve seen some spectacular rookies in recent years, and Boozer should be next in line. Again, it should be an exciting race with how talented this class is. Whoever ends up winning the award will have to impact the game in a multitude of ways and have a spectacular season. Boozer is the best choice.
