As of Thursday, when Simms and I taped the weekly picks podcast, the Bills were 1.5-point favorites for Sunday’s wild-card game at Jacksonville.
The line has moved by three points on DraftKings, with the Jaguars currently 1.5-point favorites.
The shift acknowledges the fact that the Jaguars are the more accomplished team this season, with the better record and higher seed. And it suggests that the sharps are showing up and betting for the Jaguars, ignoring the whole “smaller market” thing and acknowledging that the Jags are a legitimate contender.
They’re also at home, which is significant given the Bills’ experience with road playoff games. The Bills have lost eight straight postseason games away from Orchard Park. Their last playoff road win came in the 1992 AFC Championship.
Also, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is 0-4 on the road in the postseason. Three losses have come at Kansas City. The other happened at Houston, in a 2019 wild-card game.
On Sunday, Allen gets a chance to win a playoff game on the road in a postseason field that doesn’t include Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, or Lamar Jackson. Previously, the betting public narrowly believed Buffalo could pull it off. As of Saturday night, the sentiment has flipped.
The Bills won’t have wide receiver Joshua Palmer with them on Sunday in Jacksonville.
Palmer, who had previously been listed as questionable with an ankle injury, has been downgraded to out, the Bills announced on Saturday afternoon.
Palmer played in 12 games with eight starts during the regular season and had 22 catches for 303 yards.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen has not had a great group of wide receivers this season, and losing Palmer won’t help. Allen’s wide receivers on Sunday against the Jaguars will be Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Tyrell Shavers, Brandin Cooks and Gabe Davis.
Browns defensive end Myles Garrett set the single-season sack record during the 2025 season and he also became one of three unanimous choices for the Associated Press All-Pro team.
All 50 voters selected Garrett as one of their choices at edge rusher in this year’s voting. Those voters also unanimously selected Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua and Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba for this year’s first team.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford got the nod over Drake Maye at quarterback, which opens up the possibility of a split with MVP for the second straight season. Stafford got 31 votes while the Patriots quarterback got 18 with Bills quarterback Josh Allen getting the other one.
Stafford joins kicker Gary Anderson as the only players to be named a first-team All-Pro for the first time in their 17th season or later.
The full All-Pro teams appear below:
First team
Offense
Quarterback — Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Running Back — Bijan Robinson, Atlanta
Fullback — Kyle Juszczyk, San Francisco
Wide Receivers — Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams; Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle; Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati
All Purpose — Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco
Tight End — Trey McBride, Arizona
Left Tackle — Garrett Bolles, Denver
Left Guard — Joe Thuney, Chicago
Center — Creed Humphrey, Kansas City
Right Guard — Quinn Meinerz, Denver
Right Tackle — Penei Sewell, Detroit
Defense
Edge Rushers — Myles Garrett, Cleveland; Will Anderson Jr., Houston; Micah Parsons, Green Bay
Interior Linemen — Jeffery Simmons, Tennessee; Zach Allen, Denver
Linebackers — Jack Campbell, Detroit; Jordyn Brooks, Miami
Cornerbacks — Derek Stingley Jr., Houston; Quinyon Mitchell, Philadelphia
Slot cornerback — Cooper DeJean, Philadelphia
Safeties — Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore; Kevin Byard, Chicago
Special Teams
Placekicker — Will Reichard, Minnesota
Punter — Jordan Stout, Baltimore
Kick Returner — Ray Davis, Buffalo
Punt Returner — Chimera Dike, Tennessee
Special Teamer — Devon Key, Denver
Long Snapper — Ross Matiscik, Jacksonville
Second team
Offense
Quarterback — Drake Maye, New England
Running Back — James Cook, Buffalo
Fullback — Patrick Ricard, Baltimore
Wide Receivers — George Pickens, Dallas; Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit; Chris Olave, New Orleans
All Purpose — Bijan Robinson, Atlanta
Tight End — Kyle Pitts, Atlanta
Left Tackle — Trent Williams, San Francisco
Left Guard — Quenton Nelson, Indianapolis
Center — Aaron Brewer, Miami
Right Guard — Chris Lindstrom, Atlanta
Right Tackle — Darnell Wright, Chicago
Defense
Edge Rushers — Brian Burns, New York Giants; Danielle Hunter, Houston; Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit
Interior Linemen — Leonard Williams, Seattle; Cameron Heyward, Pittsburgh
Linebackers — Devin Lloyd, Jacksonville; Ernest Jones IV, Seattle
Cornerbacks — Patrick Surtain II, Denver; Devon Witherspoon, Seattle
Slot cornerback — Derwin James, Los Angeles Chargers
Safeties — Jessie Bates III, Atlanta; Talanoa Hufanga, Denver; Xavier McKinney, Green Bay (Hufanga and McKinney were tied for the second-team spot)
Special teams
Placekicker — Brandon Aubrey, Dallas
Punter — Michael Dickson, Seattle
Kick Returner — Kavontae Turpin, Dallas
Punt Returner — Marcus Jones, New England
Special Teamer — Del’Shawn Phillips, Los Angeles Chargers
Long Snapper — Andrew DePaola, Minnesota
There are no worries when it comes to the availability of Josh Allen for Sunday’s postseason matchup against the Jaguars.
Allen was a full participant in practice all week with his foot injury and has no game status, meaning he’s set to play against Jacksonville.
Allen has not missed any playing time with the injury he suffered during the Week 16 victory over the Browns.
However, it’s still unclear if the Bills will have their regular kicker. Matt Prater (right quad) did not participate on Friday and is listed as questionable. Buffalo signed kicker Matthew Wright to its practice squad earlier this week in case Prater is unavailable.
Running back Ty Johnson (ankle) is also questionable after he was limited on Friday. He did not participate on Wednesday or Thursday.
As noted by head coach Sean McDermott earlier on Friday, linebacker Terrel Bernard (calf), cornerback Maxwell Hariston (ankle), and safety Damar Hamlin (pectoral) are out. Receiver Joshua Palmer (ankle) and linebacker Shaq Thompson (neck) are questionable.
Additionally, Safety Cole Bishop (ribs), defensive end Joey Bosa (hamstring), defensive tackle DaQuan Jones (calf), tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee), defensive back cam Lewis (toe), linebacker Matt Milano (illness), safety Jordan Poyer (hamstring), and defensive tackle T.j. Sanders (shoulder) are all off the injury report and are expected to play.
The Bills will not have at least a couple of key defensive players for Sunday’s matchup against the Jaguars.
Head coach Sean McDermott has ruled out linebacker Terrel Bernard (calf), cornerback Maxwell Hariston (ankle), and safety Damar Hamlin (pectoral) for the contest.
Hamlin is returning from injured reserve and would have needed to be activated to the 53-man roster to play.
Bernard and Hariston were both sidelined for Wednesday and Thursday’s practices.
While kicker Matt Prater (right quad) did not practice on Wednesday, leading to the signing of Matthew Wright on the practice squad, he was a full participant on Thursday.
“Thought he did some good things yesterday,” McDermott said, via Mady Glab of the team’s website. “We’ll see where and how he trends heading into the weekend.”
Prater is not slated to kick on Friday, but that is his usual process two days before a game.
Receiver Joshua Palmer (ankle) and linebacker Shaq Thompson (neck) are set to be questionable. Running back Ty Johnson (ankle) did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday, but should see the field on Friday and the Bills will make a determination on his status from there.
“[We’ll] take a hard look at him today and see how he does,” McDermott said. “We’ll know more after practice.”
Buffalo’s full final injury report is due out later on Friday.
