We’ve recently taken a look at the coaches on the hot seat for 2025. This week, a reader asked the same question as it relates to quarterbacks.
Plenty of them are feeling the heat, or should be, this season. Let’s take a look at each spot, based on the loose arrangement of the conferences and divisions that has been tattooed onto my brain.
Justin Fields, Jets: His contract has $10 million in guarantees that spill into 2026. That’s not enough to guarantee him two years as the starter. He needs to do enough in 2025 to earn 2026 — and beyond.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins: His contract guarantees his pay through 2026. If the Dolphins fall flat and change coaches, the next coach likely will want a fresh start at quarterback. While the cap charges will complicate a split before 2027, every high-end quarterback contract eventually leads to a big cap charge when the relationship ends. The next coach (and the next G.M., if owner Stephen Ross cleans house) may want to rip the Band-Aid off in one motion.
Aaron Rodgers, Steelers: He says he’s pretty sure this is his last year. If he doesn’t play well enough for the Steelers in 2025 and if he wants to keep playing in 2026, the Steelers may give him the same cold shoulder that Russell Wilson got after 2024.
All Browns quarterbacks: With Jacksonville’s first-round pick in their back pocket, the Browns could be in position to get a future franchise quarterback in next year’s draft. That raises the stakes for every quarterback currently on the Cleveland roster. Because there’s a chance none of them will be the starter in 2026.
Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson, Colts: It already feels like Jones will be the Week 1 starter. He’ll then have a chance to lock the revolving door the Colts have had since Andrew Luck retired. If he doesn’t, the Colts will be looking elsewhere in 2026. As to Richardson, his best play is to play better than he ever has, if and when he gets the chance.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars: Every new coach wants his own quarterback, except when the coach inherits a true franchise quarterback. But Tony Dungy landing with Peyton Manning doesn’t happen very often. And it’s not clear whether Lawrence is a short-list franchise quarterback. He was on track to be one as of 2022. The past two years haven’t been good enough, long-term contract notwithstanding. What do coach Liam Coen and G.M. James Gladstone want? If Lawrence doesn’t play better in 2025 than he did in 2024, Lawrence and everyone else may find out in 2026.
Geno Smith, Raiders: He’s being mentioned simply to say he’s not on the hot seat. He has $18.5 million in guarantees for 2026, and his close ties to Pete Carroll will keep Smith around for at least two years. (Unless, of course, a certain minority owner decides otherwise.)
Dak Prescott, Cowboys: He’s probably not on the hot seat, because his $60 million per year contract would wreak havoc on the salary cap if the Cowboys were to cut or trade him (yes, he has a no-trade clause, but he can waive it) in 2026. The complication for the Cowboys is that his $45 million salary for 2027 becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2026 league year. They’re basically stuck — all because they waited too long to give him his second contract, and then waited too long to give him his third contract.
Russell Wilson, Giants: If he’s the Week 1 starter (if Jaxson Dart lives up to his first-round draft stock, Wilson shouldn’t be), the clock will be ticking. Immediately. In 2004, the Giants benched Kurt Warner after nine games for Eli Manning, even though the Giants were 5-4 at the time. When Dart is ready, Dart will play. Even if Wilson makes it through 2025 without getting benched, he’ll have to do plenty to keep Dart on the sideline for 2026.
Jordan Love, Packers: He’s not on the hot seat per se, but he needs to play better in 2025 than he did in 2024. If not, he will be on the hot seat in 2026. The wild card in Green Bay is new CEO Ed Policy, who operates as the de facto owner of the team.
J.J. McCarthy, Vikings: He’s getting his shot to play, after a knee injury wiped out his rookie season. Anything other than an outright disaster will ensure his status for 2026. At worst, he’d have to compete with a more established veteran next year.
Tyler Shough, Saints: He’ll need to do enough in 2025 to earn the chance to do well enough in 2026 to get the Saints to not pursue the grandson of Archie Manning in 2027. (And, yes, I think Arch Manning will spend two years as a college starter before entering the draft.)
Bryce Young, Panthers: In year three, he needs to continue the growth he showed late in the 2024 season, in order to secure a fourth season, the fifth-year option, and ideally (for him) a second contract.
Kyler Murray, Cardinals: His contract gives him two more years of financial security. But this is the team that drafted Murray a year after using the 10th overall pick on Josh Rosen (not Lamar Jackson). So who knows what the Cardinals will do if Murray doesn’t propel the team into contention this year?
Sam Darnold, Seahawks: He has a one-year deal, as a practical matter. And the Seahawks seem to really like rookie Jalen Milroe. Darnold will need to play very well to secure his status for 2026.
Matthew Stafford, Rams: It’s not the “hot seat” as much as it’s a mutual understanding that player and team are taking things one year at a time. After the season, both sides will have to recommit. Whether the Rams will want to do that depends on how Stafford plays in 2025, and on their other options for staffing the position in 2026.
That’s a lot of names. But it’s no surprise. There aren’t many true, unquestioned, year-after-year franchise quarterbacks. And the teams that don’t have one are always hoping to find one.
It has created more quarterback movement in recent years than ever before. Plenty of the names listed above will be on the move in 2026.
The new approach to college football will make it more and more like pro football. Which, in theory, provides an advantage for college football coaches with pro football experience.
Nebraska coach Matt Rhule, who spent two-plus seasons as head coach of the Carolina Panthers, believes his time in the NFL will help him when it comes to shaping a college roster in an era of players getting paid.
Via Shayni Matra of SI.com, Rhule made his case in a recent visit to Greg McElroy’s podcast, Always College Football.
“I think the biggest thing you learn when you’re in the NFL is really evaluation,” Rhule said. “Before, in college football, it was like, ‘Yeah, he’s a good player, let’s offer him, let’s take him.’ You get to the NFL, they’re all good players. It’s just, ‘Hey, what’s the financial value we put on this person and put on this position?’ Every year in the NFL, you go through free agency, and you see teams walking away from it with really good players because of their contract situations.”
One key difference comes from the inability, under the current college system, to manipulate the available spending by carrying dollars over from one year to the next.
“The smart teams in the NFL carry money over and position themselves through the years,” Rhule said. “But that discipline, I think, is something that’s really, really unique. It’s hard because you get to know the players. You want to take care of everybody.”
One goal of the House settlement is to balance out the dollars. Rhule hopes that will lead to parity.
We’ll believe it when we see it. With the money now flowing freely, the programs that have the most will always find a way to get it to the players, directly or indirectly.
Then there’s the thing that you were probably thinking earlier and that probably goes without saying. But I’ll say it anyway. Given that Rhule was 11-27 in 38 NFL games, does it make sense to put much stock in his NFL experience making a positive difference at Nebraska?
Panthers right tackle Taylor Moton turns 31 next month and has had some recent injury issues. The Panthers, though, didn’t draft his heir apparent.
He heads into the final year of his contract looking for another one.
“Looking forward, I do believe I have another contract in me,” Moton told Joe Person of TheAthletic.com. “But right now my focus is on the 2025 season and making sure I do whatever I can to have the best season I can for everybody involved.”
Moton was a part of a 2017 Panthers draft class that also included Christian McCaffrey, Curtis Samuel and Harrison Butker. Moton, who has played 129 games with the team, hopes to finish his career where he started it.
His health will have the final say in how long he plays.
Moton began his career appearing in 120 consecutive games before a triceps injury last October kept him out two games. He missed a Week 17 game with a knee issue and was limited during the offseason program with a minor pectoral injury.
His knees are the biggest concern, though the athletic training staff has come up with a plan to help keep him on the field.
“It’s chronic stuff. Most linemen deal with it,” Moton told Person. “But it’s just figuring out what we can do to make sure it’s limited and I’m still able to explode off it, which right now I can and I feel like I can in the future. After a while, you start learning more about it and what can we do to make sure it’s as little of an issue as possible. I feel like I’m moving like I was when I was younger.”
The Club World Cup is happening currently in multiple American cities. The weather is prompting some to ask whether certain American cities should be excluded from such events.
After a 113-minute weather delay in Charlotte on Saturday, Chelsea coach Enzo Maresca sounded off about the situation.
“For me personally it’s not football,” Maresca said, via Oliver Kay of TheAthletic.com. “It’s already seven, eight, nine games that they suspended. It’s a joke to be honest, it’s not football. It’s not for us. You cannot be inside. I can understand that for security reasons, you are to suspend the game. But if you suspend seven, eight games, that means it is probably not the right place to do this competition.”
During the Club World Cup, six games have been delayed due to weather. Three delays lasted longer than an hour.
Maresca’s point is that a delay changes the fundamental nature of the game, which features mostly non-stop action for a pair of 45-minute halves.
“The problem is that when the game is suspended, it’s not football,” he said. “Guys, it’s not football. You suspend the game, it’s not football. It’s completely something different. So I’m happy, very happy. But at the same time, there are things that you struggle to understand for two hours before the game and then go again. And you see it. They scored because they need to chase. We are inside, we are winning. You go outside, mentally different. It’s difficult.”
He has no problem with the competition. His concern is that the number of delays has altered the nature of the games.
“It’s not normal to suspend a game,” Maresca said. “In a World Cup, how many games are suspended? Zero, probably. In Europe, how many games? Zero.”
Well, next year’s World Cup could have some suspensions. The games will be played from June 11 through July 19. And several American cities that experience thunderstorms will be hosting open-air games, including Kansas City, Boston, Philadelphia, and Miami.
Then there’s New Jersey. Which will be hosting the World Cup Final.
So if a weather delay makes non-American football not non-American football, there could be some non-non-American football in America next summer.
During Thursday’s episode of #PFTPM, someone asked for a list of the coaches on the hot seat.
I started to rattle off names before deciding to take the issue under advisement, Wapner-style, until Friday’s episode. And then I nearly forgot to do it.
During my extensive prep (i.e., none whatsoever) for Friday’s show, I came up with a list of five and counted them down. Or up. If I simply wanted to push you to the attached video, I’d say, “They’re in the attached video.” But that’s not my style. Especially when I need to type enough words to justify a full post.
So here they are, from No. 5 to No. 1. And this is my own assessment of the broader, 32-team situation. I’m not reporting anything. I’m identifying the guys whom I believe are under the biggest cloud of uncertainty as the season approaches.
5. Panthers coach Dave Canales.
There’s a glass-half-full vibe around the Panthers, given that they finished relatively strong in 2024 after a disastrous start. If that comes to fruition for the 2025 Panthers, all will be well.
If the wheels come off, it could spell doom for Canales, who enters his second season on the job.
The key becomes owner David Tepper. Will the hard-charging, results-demanding, drink-throwing (at least once) owner tolerate, say, a 4-13 finish?
It won’t be easy for Canales, if that happens. Mainly because of the guy who signs the checks, and who issues the pink slips.
[Editor’s note: In a prior version of this story, I said Canales is entering his third season. I had my head up my ass. Sorry. It’s year two. Which doesn’t matter for an owner who fired his last coach, Frank Reich, during year one.]
4. Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer.
The key to knowing Schottenheimer’s job security is to know whether and to what extent he has guaranteed money beyond 2025.
Usually, head coaches enjoy at least three years of guarantees. But there’s nothing usual about the hiring of Brian Schottenheimer.
He was on exactly zero teams’ short lists during the latest hiring cycle. For the Cowboys, who wanted to have offensive continuity for quarterback Dak Prescott, it was either Schottenheimer or Eagles offensive coordinator (new Saints coach) Kellen Moore. Schottenheimer came cheaper.
How cheap? So cheap that there would be no buyout if he’s fired after one year?
If so, Schottenheimer could need to do enough in 2025 to earn his employment for 2026.
3. Colts coach Shane Steichen.
Through two seasons, Steichen is 17-17 with no playoff appearances. His non-interim predecessor, Frank Reich, went 40-33-1 with a pair of playoff berths and was abruptly fired.
The swing and miss (so far) on quarterback Anthony Richardson is on Steichen’s record. The failure to develop Richardson is on Steichen’s resume.
As the 2024 season ended, there was a haze of confusion as to whether big changes would be made in Indianapolis. Now that an ownership change has happened following the passing of Jim Irsay, it remains to be seen how Carlie Irsay-Gordon will run the team.
And, most importantly, whether she’ll want to hire a coach of her own after her first season in charge.
How the team performs in 2025 becomes a massive factor in resolving what currently is a major unknown. Which puts pressure on Steichen to win enough games to make the answer an obvious “yes.”
2. Giants coach Brian Daboll.
On one day, Giants co-owner John Mara said he’d be sticking with G.M. Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll. Then, Mara said he’s running out of patience.
It’s a mixed message to Daboll as to the potential impact of the upcoming season, and it necessarily puts him on the hot seat.
It shouldn’t. The Giants are in a difficult division. They need plenty of help from a talent standpoint. Mara should give his current regime more time.
And not just a commitment that ultimately feels temporary. That’s precisely how it feels in New York.
1. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel.
Even at a time when everyone is 0-0 and all teams have plausible hope, it feels like the window has closed for a Dolphins team that could end up flying straight into the glass in 2025.
There’s dysfunction. There’s turmoil. There’s an unsettled situation with a star player who received a market-level contract in September 2024, and another star player who has said he wants out and who may feel the same way all over again if the 2025 season starts poorly.
It all comes back to Tua Tagovailoa. Can he play well? Can he stay healthy enough to play well?
Can the Dolphins win enough games to make it to the playoffs?
Along the way, can they shed the narrative (as confirmed by linebacker Jordyn Brooks) that they go soft as the weather turns cold?
Ultimately, it comes down to whether Stephen Ross will demand a major change if 2025 ends up being another disappointing season.
Thirty years ago, the late Jets owner Leon Hess fired Pete Carroll after one season by saying this, “I’m 80 years old. I want results now.”
Stephen Ross is five years older than Hess was when he said that.
The video mentions a few others who didn’t make the top five. I’ll defer to it for those. Mainly because I got to 800 words without having to do that.
