On Sunday, the New England Patriots will play in the AFC Championship for the 16th time.
That ties them for the second most appearances since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, with the Steelers. The 49ers, who fell one game short last weekend of their 20th NFC title game, lead the way with 19.
New England has an 11-4 record in conference championships. That’s the second-highest winning percentage for teams with more than five appearances. (The Giants are a perfect 5-0.)
The highest winning percentage for teams with more than five conference championship games is New England’s opponent on Sunday. The Broncos, who’ll be playing in their 11th AFC Championship, are 8-2.
New England has been to 14 conference championship games since 1996. Which dovetails nicely with the Cowboys, who went to 14 post-merger conference championship games before 1996. In the 30 years since then, the Cowboys have zero.
The only teams who haven’t been to at least one since 1996 are the Dolphins (1992) and the Browns (1989) — if, of course, we ignore that the franchise that was the Browns moved to Baltimore and became the Ravens, which have been there five times since 1996.
The Texans, who lost to the Patriots last Sunday, are the only NFL team to never play for the right to play in the Super Bowl.
Denver practice squad wide receiver Elijah Moore hasn’t played in a game for the Broncos yet. But he has already helped the Broncos get to the AFC Championship Game. And he might get on the field in that game on Sunday.
Moore signed with the Broncos’ practice squad last month after the Bills cut him, and when the Broncos were preparing to face the Bills last week, Moore said he helped prepare his new team with everything relevant he could tell about his old team.
“I did all I can in meetings. They asked me questions. Whatever they asked, I gave it to them,” Moore told Chris Tomasson of the Denver Gazette.
Now Tomasson reports that the Broncos may elevate Moore from the practice squad to play against the Patriots. Broncos wide receiver Troy Franklin has a hamstring injury, and Moore could take Franklin’s place.
Moore is undeniably talented, and was the 34th overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft. But in stints with the Jets, Browns and Bills, he never produced to the level of his talent. The Broncos would love to see Moore show what he can do tomorrow against the Patriots.
Running back J.K. Dobbins returned to practice for the Broncos this week, but he won’t be playing against the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
The Broncos ruled Dobbins out on Friday. Dobbins has been on injured reserve due to a foot injury since November.
Wide receiver Pat Bryant (concussion) will be playing this weekend. He has no injury designation on the team’s final injury report.
Center Alex Forsyth (ankle), wide receiver Troy Franklin (hamstring), safety JL Skinner (quad), and center Luke Wattenberg (shoulder) are listed as questionable. Tight end Lucas Krull (foot), linebacker Drew Sanders (ankle), and quarterback Bo Nix (ankle) have been ruled out.
Thirty-six hours ago, the Broncos were 5.5-point underdogs in the AFC Championship Game, an unprecedented spread for the home team in a conference title game. But as the game approaches, bettors are backing the Broncos.
The point spread has shifted to the point that multiple sports books now have the Patriots favored by only 3.5 points. That’s a significant shift late in the week.
The betting line may be particularly volatile for this game because no one knows what to expect from Broncos backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, who will start in place of the injured Bo Nix. After Nix was injured at the end of the Broncos’ divisional round win, opinions have been all over the map about whether Stidham is prepared to step in for Denver. Stidham hasn’t thrown a pass in an NFL game in two years, so it’s impossible to say how he’s going to look when he gets the opportunity. The Broncos were expected to be one-point favorites if Nix had been healthy.
The Broncos are the first home team to be an underdog in a conference championship game since January of 2018, when the Eagles, led by backup quarterback Nick Foles, were two-point underdogs against the Vikings. The Eagles won, 38-7, and then won the Super Bowl two weeks later.
The annual spinning of the coaching carousel during the NFL postseason creates real distractions for assistant coaches on playoff teams who are in line for promotions. At a time when every waking moment should be devoted to preparing for the next game, precious hours, minutes, and seconds are siphoned away.
A conflict arises. Finishing the current job versus trying to get the next one. The bigger one. The life-altering one.
Then there’s the reality that success in the current position will delay, if not derail, other opportunities.
Consider the candidates who are coaching this weekend: Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, Broncos quarterback coach/passing game coordinator Davis Webb, Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula, Rams offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, Rams passing game coordinator Nate Scheelhaase, Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and Seahawks defensive coordinator Aden Durde. None has been available to be hired, as five of 10 openings have been filled.
Sometimes, a team will wait through the Super Bowl to make its hire. (And, on at least one occasion, an unofficial deal fell apart.) If it’s close between a candidate who can be hired now and a candidate who may not be available for 17 more days, how can that not be a factor?
Consider Vance Joseph. Unlike the others listed above, he has head-coaching experience. And he has done an excellent job with the Denver defense, finishing second in the NFL in yards allowed (only only yard per game behind the Texans) and third in points per game for the top-seeded Broncos.
This week alone, three defensive coordinators were hired — Robert Saleh with the Titans, Jeff Hafley with the Dolphins, Jesse Minter with the Ravens. It’s unknown whether Joseph may have gotten any of those jobs, if the Broncos had lost last weekend to the Bills. It is known that no one can hire him until the Denver season ends.
There’s no simple solution, unless the league is willing to pause the interview and hiring process until after the Super Bowl. And while that may be the best outcome, the clock starts ticking loudly on the offseason, by the time the confetti falls. The Scouting Combine, free agency, the draft. Teams need time to get coaches in place, and coaches need time to get staffs hired.
Still, the current approach is flawed, in multiple ways. Coaches and their teams pay for success, by having the candidates’ time and attention diluted. And the coaches who are in line to get hired potentially lose, with every playoff win.
