As the field heads into The Wick 338 in Southwick, Massachusetts, Jett Lawrence’s outright overall victory odds (-380) continue to become less attractive after he scored his fourth Nationals victory of 2025, but Eli Tomac’s (+242) were also trimmed this week after earning his second moto win at High Point.
Last week in Mount Morris, Pennsylvania, Jett proved that even when things do not go his way in the outdoor series, he remains untouchable in terms of the overall win. He was caught off guard when rain fell at the gate drop of the second moto, and an overabundance of caution dropped him into a battle for 10th in the first turn. Jett’s confidence is at an astronomical level, as he has lost only one overall outdoor National in the three years he’s raced in the 450 Pro Motocross series. He kept his emotions in check and steadily rode through the field to third just prior to the race being red-flagged with seven minutes remaining on the clock.
Meanwhile, Jett’s odds to win the championship skyrocketed to -1127 compared to Tomac’s +546. Jett has a 28-point lead over the competition, which is more than one moto. Look for that gap to continue to grow until Tomac trims points away from the presumptive champion in consecutive weeks.
But Tomac is not lacking in confidence either. He’s been in the series long enough to know that if he keeps the pressure on and avoids injury, it’s a matter of time before he puts two strong motos together and wins the overall. His weakness in 2025 has been the ability to experience two solid gate drops. In High Point, he struggled in Moto 1 and used up his reserves before becoming a part of a three-rider battle for third. He finished fifth, but was only one second off pace to standing on the podium in that moto and scoring the overall victory.
Scoring his second podium of the season, Hunter Lawrence (+841) remains the only other rider under 10/1 in opening raw odds. Hunter began the season with long odds of +1648 in Pala, California, and after finishing third in that round, traders overcompensated, giving him +558 odds at Hangtown. His last three rounds landed between +841 and +862, which is a reasonable return on investment. Hunter has been uneven this year as he continues to recover from a shoulder injury, but he was one lap away from scoring the overall in High Point.
The traders at Alt Sports Data, the official linemaker for the SuperMotocross Championship, are apparently getting slightly more worried that Aaron Plessinger (+1322) is preparing to break through. His +1900 odds for High Point were 578 points higher than he shows on the opening form for Southwick in no small part because of the laps he led in Moto 1 when Jett stalled his bike.
Justin Cooper (+3434) remains virtually unchanged since he dropped from +4445 at Thunder Valley to +3233 at High Point. He remains a high-risk, high-reward proposition who could factor into some betting strategies. Last week, Cooper swept the top five in the two motos and kept his streak of overall top-fives alive.
One intriguing head-to-head matchup this week is between Jorge Prado (+14186 in overall odds) versus Jason Anderson (+12246). While Anderson is favored in overall odds by nearly 2/1, Prado holds the advantage in the matchup with odds of -128 to Anderson’s -104. Neither rider is strong enough to warrant an overall win bet, but with podium odds of +805 for Prado, he could be worthy of some loose change.
Opening Odds, Outright Overall Win
Jett Lawrence, -380
Eli Tomac, +242
Hunter Lawrence, +841
Aaron Plessinger, +1322
Justin Cooper, +3434
Cooper Webb, +8233
Jason Anderson, +12246
Jorge Prado, +14186
Joey Savatgy, +14186
Malcolm Stewart, +14186
Colt Nichols, +14186
RJ Hampshire, +14186
Bryson Gardner, +14186
Harri Kullas, +14186
Derek Drake, +14186
Derek Kelley, +14186
Romain Pape, +14186
Benny Bloss, +14186
Bryce Shelly, +14186
Opening Odds, Overall Podium
Jett Lawrence, -1900
Eli Tomac, -300
Aaron Plessinger, -110
Hunter Lawrence, +105
Justin Cooper, +108
Jason Anderson, +155
Cooper Webb, +227
RJ Hampshire, +713
Joey Savatgy, +764
Jorge Prado, +805
Malcolm Stewart, +1154
Harri Kullas, +4186
Benny Bloss, +4186
Derek Drake, +4186
Romain Pape, +4186
Colt Nichols, +4186
Derek Kelley, +4186
Brandon Ray, +4186
Bryce Shelly, +4186
Bryson Gardner, +4186
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