Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet Game 2 of the series between the Chicago White Sox at the Pittsburgh Pirates and Vince Velasquez‘s K Prop.
White Sox (-125) at Pirates (+105): O/U 8.5
We’ve been hot on Pirates games and we’re going to keep rolling here.
The Pirates’ offense was outstanding in a 13-7 home opening victory on Andrew McCutchen day and despite the cooldown off the blackout and 39,000 fans yesterday, I think Vince Velasquez‘s revenge game will keep the fans and team engaged in their second home game of the year.
I think Chicago is overvalued here with Mike Clevinger on the mound. Last season away from home, Clevinger posted a 5.46 ERA in 14 games and 13 starts with the Padres. The former Padres’ pitcher allowed 64 hits over 64.1 innings along with a .255 OBA on the road last season.
Chicago’s opponents are hitting .298 and scoring 7.6 runs per game this year, so I like the chances Pittsburgh can hit Clevinger even after his impressive outing at Houston (5.0 innings, 8 Ks,3 H, 3 BB).
In Clevinger’s first start this year, he threw the fastball 51% of the time and posted below average wxOBA, chase rate (15th percentile) and walk percentage (29%).
Neither team has faced either pitcher more than 16 total times, so I will back the home team and underdog. I grabbed the Pirates ML at +105 odds and would go down to -110.
Pick: Pirates ML (1u)
Vince Velasquez O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. White Sox
Vince Velasquez gets a matchup against his former White Sox team from a year ago.
Velasquez pitched 27 games and started nine with the White Sox last season posting a 4.75 ERA over 75.1 innings pitched.
In his one start this year with Pittsburgh, Velasquez pitched 4.2 innings with three strikeouts compared to five hits and three earned runs over 86 pitches.
This is a bounce back opportunity for Velasquez and the White Sox have 46 strikeouts to 11 walks in five road games thus far. Velasquez’s O/U strikeout prop is set at 3.5 for -160 to the Over after opening at 4.5 and +110 to the Over.
However, I will opt for the 5+ strikeouts or Over 4.5 at +150 odds on FanDuel for a better payout.
Pick: Vince Velasquez 5+ Strikeouts (1u)
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