Vaughn Dalzell sees value starting to fade on the Milwaukee Brewers to miss the postseason, so he’s getting on the NL action now.
Milwaukee Brewers to Miss the Postseason (+140)
The NL Wild Card race is heating up and teams like Cincinnati and the Los Angeles Dodgers are barely holding onto division leads over Milwaukee, Arizona, and San Diego in the Central and West.
Milwaukee is currently sitting at 58-51, which is tied for the final Wild Card spot with Miami. Milwaukee is 1.0 games ahead of Arizona, 2.5 games of Chicago, and 4.0 games above San Diego in the Wild Card race.
Since the All-Star break, the Brewers are 9-9 after starting 5-1 in the first six games. Milwaukee has lost five of the past six by 15 combined runs.
In those 18 games since the break, Milwaukee is 24th in batting average (.232) and 23rd or worse in OPS, SLG, and OBP, plus tied-23rd in runs scored (68) and tied second-worst in homers (16) during that span.
The Brewers’ offense is in a slump despite the pitching staff doing enough to keep Milwaukee above water.
Milwaukee is 5th in ERA (3.87), second in opponent batting average (.224) tied-first in WHIP (1.11), and has seven saves on 11 opportunities. The Brewers have allowed the third-fewest hits (129) during that stretch with the third-most strikeouts (180) to third-fewest walks (44).
Starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Wade Miley are expected to return within a month to bolster the pitching rotation, while hitters Brian Anderson, Rowdy Tellez, and Jesse Winker are all in the same boat.
Milwaukee’s been plagued by injuries all season and that could be a factor down the road, especially with multiple hitters and pitchers coming off IL stints and prone to rust.
When looking at the strength of schedule (SOS), as of now, the Brewers have the fifth-easiest SOS in all of baseball and easiest in the NL, but that’s because there are still 14 games versus the Cardinals and Pirates. Milwaukee is 3-3 versus St. Louis but had better success versus Pittsburgh going 5-1.
Digging a little deeper, the September schedule isn’t a cakewalk for Milwaukee.
The Brewers host the Phillies before a six-game road trip at the Pirates and Yankees, then back to Milwaukee to host the Marlins and Nationals for seven games. Milwaukee will then go back on the road for seven more against the Cardinals and Marlins, before finally wrapping up the regular season with six home games against the Cardinals and Cubs.
Milwaukee will play multiple teams in the playoff hunt and teams in the NL Central, which will make every series that much more meaningful. With the Dodgers, Rangers, Twins, Padres, and Cubs on deck before September, I think the Brewers are worth passing on to make the postseason.
I am holding a ticket on the Reds to make the playoffs at +240 and see value in fading the Brewers to miss the postseason at +140 down to +100.
Pick: Brewers to miss the postseason (1u)
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