Jett Lawrence won Round 1 of the SuperMotocross World Championship playoffs in Concord, North Carolina, with an opening, raw line of -285. The ripple effect of his victory is that his odds are more prohibitive for Round 2 at The Dome at America’s Center in St. Louis, Missouri, with a line of -455.
That is the bad news for fans who would like to ride the bandwagon of the most dominant rider in the field.
There is, however, some hidden good news. Jett’s prohibitive odds have dragged the remainder of the field to higher levels. Last week, the remainder of the top five averaged +585. For Round 2, the average is more than 400 points higher, creating some opportunities.
While the St. Louis track will be designed with significant Pro Motocross elements, this is likely to be the most Supercross-like track the playoffs have experienced. The race will be held indoors, which is good news given the severe weather experienced at zMax Dragway, and the vibe will be significantly different. Jett is great on Supercross tracks, but far less dominant than he is in the outdoors.
A series of modest bets spread among the top five may produce desirable results.
As the fourth-ranked rider, Eli Tomac (+867) is the most attractive. He has multiple wins in St. Louis with back-to-back victories in 2017 and 2018. When the race switched to a Triple Crown format and the average of those three races determined the winner, Tomac swept three motos in 2024, proving that the multi-moto format plays into his favor. In fact, Tomac remains the best Triple Crown rider in recent history. Added to that is the fact that he has not finished worse than fourth in an SMX race, and he deserves a modest wager.
Runner-up in the Supercross championship this year, Chase Sexton (+514) is the second-ranked rider for ALT Sports Data’s handicappers. There is a little less juice for the squeeze, but bettors who buy into the proposition that this track will reward indoor riders should skip their premium coffee drinks this week and spend that money on the opportunity to fund the next month.
Hunter Lawrence (+843) is the fourth-ranked rider this week. He did not make a lot of noise in Concord, but if he can capitalize on the Motocross-like elements on the track, he has a fair chance to unseat his brother.
RJ Hampshire (+1752) fits into a slot that makes him interesting if not desirable. He’s poised to break through and get his first 450 overall victory, but it will likely come on a smaller stage next year.
The next three riders in betting odds are in the 25/1 - 29/1 range with Ken Roczen (+2539), Cooper Webb (+2693), and Justin Cooper (+2885). If your strategy is to dive deep, extremely modest bets are indicated for them.
The remainder of the field is 136/1 or greater.
Opening Odds, Outright Overall Win
Jett Lawrence, -455
Chase Sexton, +514
Hunter Lawrence, +843
Eli Tomac, +867
RJ Hampshire, +1752
Ken Roczen, +2539
Cooper Webb, +2693
Justin Cooper, +2885
Dylan Ferrandis, +13599
Malcolm Stewart, +13599
Justin Barcia, +13599
Joey Savatgy, +13599
Christian Craig, +13599
Colt Nichols, +14186
Justin Hill, +14186
Shane McElrath, +14186
Dean Wilson, +14186
Benny Bloss, +15525
Jeremy Hand, +15525
Mitchell Oldenburg, +15525
Kyle Chisholm, +15525
Mitchell Harrison, +15525
Grant Harlan, +15525
Freddie Noren, +15525
Valentin Guillod, +15525
Marshal Weltin, +15525
Harri Kullas, +15525
John Short, IV, +15525
Coty Schock, +15525
Romain Pape, +15773
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