The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
We’re on to the LCS with the American League getting going on Wednesday night and the National League continuing on with Game 2. I’ve got two plays on these games and will get to them now.
Philadelphia Phillies (-105) vs. San Diego Padres (-115) Total: 7
If you bet based on the “due factor” or based on feel in general, you’d surely be backing the Padres here. No way they’d go down 2-0 at home in the NLCS with their ace on the mound, right?
Well, as I like to say, it’s important to bet games in a vacuum. Crowds can factor into games, and although it’s one of the most debated topics in sports due to the fact that it’s unquantifiable, momentum can certainly make a difference as well. There are always variables present, but at the end of the day a win in Game 1 of the NLCS shouldn’t preclude the Phillies from winning here on Wednesday.
On paper, I think this sets up brilliantly for Philly. The road team here is throwing Aaron Nola, who has looked untouchable in the postseason. The righty hasn’t allowed a run in 12 2/3 innings, scattering just nine hits with 13 strikeouts. He also spun seven innings of one-run ball against the Padres earlier this year with 10 strikeouts.
Nola is stellar, ranking among the top 10% of pitchers with a 2.74 xERA, and he’ll be pitching to the inferior offense in this game. His squad rides in with the best OPS of any team remaining in the postseason, and it’s an offense which should find life rather easy against Blake Snell.
Sure, Snell has looked pretty amazing for most of the last month, but he did allow seven earned runs in 9 1/3 innings versus Philly this season. He’s also going to face a team ranked sixth in wRC+ to lefties and one which has controlled its strikeouts to the tune of a 24% punchout rate this postseason.
I think there’s a clear advantage here for the Phillies, and with that I’d bet them all the way to -120 on the road.
Edge: Phillies -105
Editor’s Note: NBC Sports Predictor: Play for FREE and win huge jackpots up to $100,000! Download the app today.
New York Yankees (+165) vs. Houston Astros (-195) Total: 7
You know, I really want to take the Yankees here. This game marks the first in probably two months where New York isn’t carrying the burden of huge expectations on its shoulders. After the All-Star break, the Yankees were expected to break the single-season record for wins, and Aaron Judge was expected to hit north of 65 home runs. Every game seemed to be under the spotlight, and they crumbled. Then came an ALDS where once again, the pressure was on.
No one is expecting the Yankees to win here, and that’s why I’m going to take a small bite out of this moneyline. In terms of how the offense matches up, it should be pretty straightforward. They’re facing Justin Verlander, but he’s quietly been a hermit in the postseason. He posted a 4.15 ERA in the 2018 postseason and a 4.33 ERA in 2019, and this year began with a six-run disaster in Game 1 of the ALDS.
Verlander is putting together a “Playoff Kershaw” type of run here, and the Yankees enter with four runs per game in this postseason. They should be able to scratch some across against the future Hall of Famer, and with that I think the over is the best play.
Jameson Taillon allowed six earned runs to the Astros the only time he saw them this year, and behind him is a very tired and depleted Yankees bullpen. This number doesn’t really make sense.
Edge: Over 7, Yankees +165
