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Stats & Values w/ Excel Sheet

Welcome to the 2017-18 edition of my fantasy values, based entirely on projected statistics. This season, everything beyond the top-20 players is exclusive to the Draft Guide! I’ll update the files as needed, so check back periodically for updates.


(Latest Update: 10/8/17): Download the updated Excel file here.


In other words, for Draft Guide subscribers, these rankings and projections are interactive. If you think Kawhi Leonard will play 82 games this year (rather than the 66 games at which I’ve projected him), simply change that number in the spreadsheet and his fantasy values will update automatically.

If you’re scandalized by the thought that Karl-Anthony Towns will vie for the top spot in 9-cat leagues, or by my projections for Devin Booker (24.9 points, 2.1 threes, 3.8 boards, 4.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks and 3.2 turnovers, with 43% FGs and 83% FTs), go ahead and alter their projected numbers. By doing so, the means, standard deviations, z-scores and conditional formatting will update automatically. Tweak away until your heart’s content.

Even simple adjustments to a player’s projected minutes can have a profound effect. If you think Nerlens Noel will blow past the 24.0 minutes at which I’ve projected him, just increase his projected minutes and voila -- his ranking changes.

FOLLOW THIS LINK TO DOWNLOAD THE UPDATED EXCEL SPREADSHEET...and please do not share the link! It is intended only for Draft Guide subscribers, like yourselves, who have paid for exclusive content! Here’s an idea of what it looks like:

JjPFpvl.png

If you have any problems accessing the link, or questions about how to manipulate the Excel sheet, just send me an email or a message on Twitter with your email address.

If you simply want to view the projections, you can do that here via Google Sheets.

A few notes:

1) These are my personal projections which don’t reflect any sort of Rotoworld consensus. If you’re interested in my methodology, contact me and I’d be happy to explain. Projections are inherently fallible and subjective, which is why I’ve created this spreadsheet in the first place!

2) These are roto rankings, both per game and cumulative (weighted by projected games played). Owners in head-to-head leagues can use this as a road map to value, but your own draft-day strategy is a massive and unquantifiable X-factor. If you’re punting free throws, Andre Drummond‘s absurd FT% anchor vanishes and he becomes an elite player in 9-cat, etc.

3) You will disagree with me...and that’s a good thing! Everyone has their own expectations for breakout players, declining veterans, etc. Even I won’t draft these lists like an automaton. Early round picks determine how to build your team in the middle and late rounds. League depth, personal strategy, the preferences of opposing GMs, league settings (e.g. injury-reserve spots, caps on waiver wire moves) -- it all has a huge impact on how to value players. CONTEXT IS KING. Projections are constantly changing throughout the preseason, which is why I made this spreadsheet in the first place!

Without further ado, here are the projected values, beginning with 9-cat. You’ll notice immediately that Karl-Anthony Towns tops the list. He doesn’t come out No. 1 in 8-cat leagues, or even in 9-cat on a per-game basis. However, when you factor in his durability (zero DNPs in two seasons), he jumps over Kevin Durant into the top spot. Again, I encourage everyone to look at the projections and (for Draft Guide subscribers) adjust the projections to your own satisfaction!

NOTE: For the latest 9-cat and 8-cat rankings, refer to the links above!

Projected 9-CAT Value (per game)

9-cat WEIGHTED by Projected Games

9-cat Weighted (x2) by Projected Games…in case you’re very risk-averse and hate DNPs

Karl-Anthony Towns

13.11

12.79

12.48

Giannis Antetokounmpo

12.99

12.67

12.36

James Harden

12.80

12.49

12.18

Kevin Durant

14.34

12.24

10.45

Stephen Curry

12.62

12.01

11.42

Anthony Davis

13.08

11.17

9.53

Russell Westbrook

12.13

11.09

10.15

Rudy Gobert

10.72

10.46

10.20

LeBron James

11.15

10.06

9.08

Kawhi Leonard

12.49

10.05

8.09

Jimmy Butler

10.74

9.95

9.23

Damian Lillard

10.28

9.90

9.54

Nikola Jokic

11.12

9.90

8.81

Chris Paul

11.81

9.80

8.12

Kyrie Irving

10.68

9.77

8.94

Myles Turner

10.01

9.77

9.53

Paul George

9.98

9.37

8.80

John Wall

9.04

8.60

8.18

DeMarcus Cousins

9.76

8.57

7.52

Kyle Lowry

9.87

8.55

7.40

Hassan Whiteside

9.06

8.51

7.99

Kristaps Porzingis

9.46

8.42

7.50

Otto Porter

8.44

8.24

8.04

C.J. McCollum

8.15

7.95

7.76

Kevin Love

8.73

7.87

7.11

Draymond Green

8.49

7.87

7.29

Kemba Walker

8.19

7.79

7.41

Bradley Beal

8.45

7.73

7.07

Brook Lopez

8.04

7.26

6.55

Mike Conley

8.07

7.19

6.40

Klay Thompson

7.41

6.96

6.53

Marc Gasol

7.69

6.56

5.60

Gordon Hayward

7.12

6.42

5.80

Blake Griffin

7.55

6.35

5.34

DeMar DeRozan

6.50

6.10

5.73

Al Horford

7.13

6.09

5.19

Serge Ibaka

6.30

5.99

5.70

Aaron Gordon

6.08

5.93

5.78

Paul Millsap

6.78

5.87

5.09

Gary Harris

6.54

5.82

5.18

Victor Oladipo

6.62

5.81

5.10

Trevor Ariza

6.01

5.71

5.43

Nikola Vucevic

6.33

5.71

5.15

Eric Bledsoe

6.72

5.66

4.76

Jae Crowder

6.01

5.43

4.90

Ricky Rubio

6.00

5.41

4.88

Khris Middleton

6.48

5.37

4.45

T.J. Warren

6.01

5.28

4.64

Jeff Teague

5.54

5.27

5.01

Nicolas Batum

5.47

5.14

4.83

Dennis Smith Jr.

5.12

4.99

4.87

LaMarcus Aldridge

5.56

4.95

4.40

Tobias Harris

5.16

4.91

4.67

D’Angelo Russell

5.44

4.91

4.43

Marquese Chriss

4.97

4.85

4.73

Harrison Barnes

5.18

4.80

4.45

Danilo Gallinari

6.03

4.78

3.79

Jamal Murray

4.83

4.71

4.60

Nerlens Noel

5.99

4.67

3.65

Avery Bradley

5.54

4.66

3.92

George Hill

5.32

4.61

3.99

Jusuf Nurkic

5.20

4.50

3.90

Goran Dragic

5.17

4.48

3.88

Joel Embiid

6.32

4.47

3.16

Dennis Schroder

4.68

4.45

4.23

Jrue Holiday

5.44

4.45

3.63

DeAndre Jordan

4.46

4.35

4.25

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

4.63

4.35

4.09

Marvin Williams

4.84

4.31

3.84

Robert Covington

5.04

4.31

3.68

Carmelo Anthony

4.75

4.29

3.87

Devin Booker

4.51

4.29

4.08

Willie Cauley Stein

4.68

4.28

3.92

Andrew Wiggins

4.37

4.26

4.16

Elfrid Payton

4.36

4.25

4.15

Patrick Beverley

5.27

4.24

3.41

Gorgui Dieng

4.37

4.21

4.06

Isaiah Thomas

8.58

4.19

2.04

Marcus Smart

4.32

4.16

4.01

Taurean Prince

4.40

4.13

3.88

Clint Capela

4.90

4.13

3.47

James Johnson

4.49

4.11

3.76

Tim Hardaway Jr.

4.43

4.10

3.80

Buddy Hield

4.20

4.10

4.00

Terrence Ross

4.27

4.06

3.86

Andre Drummond

4.11

4.01

3.91

Rodney Hood

4.69

3.89

3.23

Jonas Valanciunas

4.05

3.85

3.67

Malcolm Brogdon

4.10

3.70

3.34

Thaddeus Young

4.05

3.66

3.30

Richaun Holmes

4.14

3.64

3.19

Milos Teodosic

3.71

3.62

3.54

JaMychal Green

3.83

3.60

3.38

Allen Crabbe

3.78

3.55

3.33

Seth Curry

4.15

3.54

3.02

John Collins

3.59

3.50

3.41

Lonzo Ball

3.57

3.48

3.40

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

3.69

3.47

3.26

Joe Ingles

3.50

3.42

3.34

Norman Powell

3.64

3.38

3.13

Darren Collison

4.00

3.32

2.75

Lou Williams

3.54

3.24

2.96

Tyler Johnson

3.63

3.23

2.87

Jeremy Lin

3.89

3.22

2.67

Josh Richardson

3.77

3.22

2.74

Boban Marjanovic

3.76

3.21

2.74

Steven Adams

3.26

3.18

3.10

Derrick Favors

3.94

3.17

2.55

Nikola Mirotic

3.87

3.16

2.58

Dirk Nowitzki

4.32

3.16

2.31

Alex Len

3.53

3.14

2.80

Wesley Matthews

3.48

3.14

2.83

Moe Harkless

3.41

3.12

2.85

Ersan Ilyasova

3.31

3.07

2.84

J.J. Redick

3.39

3.06

2.76

Julius Randle

3.24

3.04

2.86

Ryan Anderson

3.49

3.02

2.61

Rudy Gay

3.97

3.00

2.27

Dwyane Wade

3.95

2.99

2.26

Brandon Ingram

3.07

2.92

2.78

Andre Iguodala

3.22

2.90

2.62

Kent Bazemore

3.17

2.86

2.58

C.J. Miles

3.07

2.84

2.63

Markieff Morris

4.02

2.84

2.01

Eric Gordon

3.35

2.78

2.30

Greg Monroe

2.99

2.74

2.51

Ben Simmons

2.79

2.72

2.65

De’Aaron Fox

2.78

2.71

2.64

Skal Labissiere

2.95

2.70

2.47

Courtney Lee

2.93

2.68

2.45

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

2.78

2.64

2.51

Pau Gasol

3.50

2.64

2.00

Wilson Chandler

3.30

2.57

2.01

Evan Fournier

2.96

2.53

2.16

Danny Green

3.04

2.53

2.09

Dewayne Dedmon

2.69

2.49

2.31

Zach LaVine

4.77

2.44

1.25

Marcus Morris

2.64

2.42

2.21

Al-Farouq Aminu

3.07

2.40

1.87

Robin Lopez

2.52

2.40

2.28

Jaylen Brown

2.52

2.40

2.28

Caris LeVert

2.88

2.39

1.98

Will Barton

2.87

2.38

1.98

Patty Mills

2.51

2.38

2.27

Marcin Gortat

2.43

2.37

2.31

Larry Nance

2.76

2.32

1.95

Jordan Clarkson

2.36

2.31

2.25

Josh Jackson

2.32

2.26

2.21

Dwight Howard

2.51

2.23

1.99

Rajon Rondo

2.67

2.21

1.84

Kelly Olynyk

2.43

2.19

1.98

Tyreke Evans

2.73

2.16

1.71

Kyle Kuzma

2.11

2.06

2.01

Lauri Markkanen

2.10

2.05

2.00

Reggie Jackson

2.51

2.02

1.62

Stanley Johnson

1.98

1.88

1.79

Enes Kanter

2.11

1.86

1.63

Cody Zeller

2.33

1.85

1.46

Chandler Parsons

2.47

1.81

1.32

Bojan Bogdanovic

1.78

1.74

1.70

Trevor Booker

1.98

1.59

1.28

Tony Allen

1.86

1.59

1.35

Taj Gibson

1.65

1.53

1.42

Justin Jackson

1.56

1.52

1.48

Evan Turner

1.55

1.33

1.13

Dion Waiters

1.60

1.32

1.10

Dario Saric

1.32

1.29

1.26

Markelle Fultz

1.31

1.28

1.24

Caleb Swanigan

1.23

1.20

1.17

Tyler Ulis

1.24

1.13

1.03

Jayson Tatum

1.05

1.02

1.00

Jarrett Allen

1.00

0.97

0.95

Derrick Rose

1.20

0.95

0.75

Austin Rivers

0.88

0.79

0.70

Jabari Parker

3.20

0.78

0.19

And here are the 8-cat values.

NOTE: For the latest 9-cat and 8-cat rankings, refer to the links above!

Projected 8-CAT Value (per game)

8-cat WEIGHTED by Projected Games

8-cat Weighted (x2) by Projected Games…in case you’re very risk-averse and hate DNPs

James Harden

16.75

16.34

15.94

Giannis Antetokounmpo

15.29

14.92

14.55

Russell Westbrook

16.15

14.78

13.51

Karl-Anthony Towns

14.55

14.19

13.85

Stephen Curry

14.85

14.12

13.43

Kevin Durant

15.43

13.17

11.25

LeBron James

14.47

13.06

11.79

Anthony Davis

14.52

12.40

10.58

John Wall

12.77

12.14

11.55

Damian Lillard

11.99

11.56

11.13

Nikola Jokic

12.95

11.53

10.27

Kyrie Irving

12.48

11.42

10.44

DeMarcus Cousins

12.91

11.33

9.95

Rudy Gobert

11.43

11.15

10.88

Chris Paul

13.25

10.99

9.11

Paul George

11.58

10.87

10.21

Kawhi Leonard

13.47

10.84

8.73

Jimmy Butler

11.67

10.81

10.02

Kyle Lowry

11.92

10.32

8.94

Myles Turner

10.09

9.84

9.60

Hassan Whiteside

9.90

9.30

8.73

Draymond Green

10.00

9.27

8.59

Kristaps Porzingis

10.27

9.14

8.14

C.J. McCollum

9.28

9.05

8.83

Kevin Love

9.86

8.90

8.03

Kemba Walker

9.25

8.80

8.37

Brook Lopez

9.65

8.71

7.86

Bradley Beal

9.38

8.58

7.84

Mike Conley

9.31

8.29

7.38

Eric Bledsoe

9.43

7.94

6.68

Marc Gasol

8.86

7.56

6.45

Dennis Smith Jr.

7.71

7.52

7.34

Blake Griffin

8.93

7.52

6.32

DeMar DeRozan

7.99

7.50

7.05

Klay Thompson

7.79

7.32

6.87

Victor Oladipo

8.32

7.30

6.41

D’Angelo Russell

8.00

7.22

6.52

Otto Porter

7.38

7.20

7.03

Dennis Schroder

7.40

7.04

6.70

Gordon Hayward

7.79

7.03

6.35

Jeff Teague

7.39

7.03

6.69

Ricky Rubio

7.73

6.98

6.30

Paul Millsap

7.92

6.86

5.94

Devin Booker

7.13

6.78

6.45

Joel Embiid

9.51

6.73

4.76

Khris Middleton

7.95

6.59

5.46

Nicolas Batum

7.00

6.58

6.18

Al Horford

7.66

6.54

5.58

Jusuf Nurkic

7.54

6.53

5.66

Aaron Gordon

6.48

6.32

6.17

Goran Dragic

7.19

6.23

5.39

Jrue Holiday

7.56

6.18

5.05

Nikola Vucevic

6.67

6.02

5.44

Serge Ibaka

6.31

6.00

5.71

Gary Harris

6.64

5.91

5.26

Marquese Chriss

5.78

5.64

5.50

Elfrid Payton

5.69

5.55

5.41

Jamal Murray

5.65

5.51

5.38

Andrew Wiggins

5.58

5.44

5.31

James Johnson

5.93

5.43

4.96

Ben Simmons

5.47

5.34

5.21

Marcus Smart

5.41

5.21

5.02

Jae Crowder

5.77

5.21

4.70

Trevor Ariza

5.46

5.19

4.94

Carmelo Anthony

5.70

5.14

4.64

Lonzo Ball

5.24

5.11

4.99

Avery Bradley

5.99

5.04

4.24

George Hill

5.80

5.02

4.35

LaMarcus Aldridge

5.61

4.99

4.45

Taurean Prince

5.28

4.96

4.66

Andre Drummond

5.02

4.90

4.78

Isaiah Thomas

9.93

4.85

2.36

T.J. Warren

5.50

4.83

4.24

Harrison Barnes

5.17

4.79

4.44

Buddy Hield

4.91

4.79

4.67

Danilo Gallinari

5.99

4.75

3.76

Jeremy Lin

5.69

4.72

3.91

Tobias Harris

4.96

4.71

4.48

Robert Covington

5.52

4.71

4.02

Tim Hardaway Jr.

4.94

4.58

4.25

Nerlens Noel

5.82

4.54

3.54

DeAndre Jordan

4.64

4.53

4.42

Patrick Beverley

5.53

4.45

3.58

Julius Randle

4.73

4.44

4.17

Willie Cauley Stein

4.85

4.44

4.06

Clint Capela

5.21

4.38

3.69

Rodney Hood

5.24

4.35

3.60

Malcolm Brogdon

4.57

4.12

3.72

Gorgui Dieng

4.19

4.04

3.89

Lou Williams

4.35

3.98

3.64

Steven Adams

4.06

3.96

3.86

John Collins

4.05

3.95

3.86

Rajon Rondo

4.63

3.84

3.18

Jonas Valanciunas

4.01

3.82

3.63

Dwyane Wade

5.05

3.82

2.88

JaMychal Green

4.01

3.77

3.54

Darren Collison

4.54

3.77

3.12

Brandon Ingram

3.94

3.75

3.57

Joe Ingles

3.82

3.73

3.64

Marvin Williams

4.13

3.68

3.28

Terrence Ross

3.85

3.66

3.48

Alex Len

4.10

3.65

3.25

Rudy Gay

4.80

3.63

2.75

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

3.86

3.62

3.40

Thaddeus Young

4.01

3.62

3.26

Norman Powell

3.84

3.56

3.30

Seth Curry

4.11

3.51

3.00

Kent Bazemore

3.83

3.46

3.12

Dwight Howard

3.78

3.37

3.00

Skal Labissiere

3.66

3.35

3.07

Evan Fournier

3.90

3.33

2.84

Derrick Favors

4.13

3.32

2.68

Richaun Holmes

3.73

3.27

2.88

Ersan Ilyasova

3.52

3.27

3.03

De’Aaron Fox

3.31

3.23

3.15

Dewayne Dedmon

3.48

3.23

2.99

Jordan Clarkson

3.30

3.22

3.14

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

3.42

3.22

3.02

Wesley Matthews

3.54

3.20

2.88

Markieff Morris

4.50

3.18

2.25

Greg Monroe

3.48

3.18

2.91

Reggie Jackson

3.94

3.17

2.55

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

3.30

3.14

2.99

Josh Jackson

3.18

3.10

3.02

Allen Crabbe

3.24

3.04

2.86

Josh Richardson

3.56

3.04

2.59

Tyler Johnson

3.40

3.03

2.69

Nikola Mirotic

3.70

3.03

2.47

J.J. Redick

3.26

2.94

2.66

Eric Gordon

3.53

2.93

2.43

Markelle Fultz

2.98

2.91

2.84

Moe Harkless

3.18

2.90

2.66

Milos Teodosic

2.97

2.90

2.83

Tyreke Evans

3.56

2.82

2.24

Wilson Chandler

3.56

2.77

2.17

Dirk Nowitzki

3.77

2.76

2.02

Al-Farouq Aminu

3.45

2.69

2.10

Will Barton

3.23

2.68

2.22

Zach LaVine

5.08

2.60

1.33

Pau Gasol

3.31

2.50

1.89

Jaylen Brown

2.63

2.50

2.38

Patty Mills

2.56

2.44

2.32

Boban Marjanovic

2.80

2.39

2.04

Caris LeVert

2.87

2.38

1.97

Ryan Anderson

2.73

2.36

2.04

Kelly Olynyk

2.58

2.33

2.10

Marcin Gortat

2.35

2.30

2.24

Dion Waiters

2.76

2.28

1.89

Dario Saric

2.33

2.28

2.22

Danny Green

2.74

2.27

1.89

Marcus Morris

2.39

2.19

2.00

Enes Kanter

2.49

2.19

1.92

Robin Lopez

2.29

2.18

2.07

Andre Iguodala

2.41

2.17

1.96

Stanley Johnson

2.21

2.10

2.00

Bojan Bogdanovic

2.12

2.06

2.01

Courtney Lee

2.24

2.04

1.87

C.J. Miles

2.08

1.93

1.79

Trevor Booker

2.26

1.82

1.47

Tyler Ulis

1.97

1.80

1.65

Larry Nance

2.05

1.72

1.45

Derrick Rose

2.13

1.69

1.34

Evan Turner

1.96

1.67

1.43

Tony Allen

1.90

1.62

1.38

Chandler Parsons

2.10

1.54

1.12

Taj Gibson

1.62

1.50

1.39

Lauri Markkanen

1.54

1.50

1.46

Caleb Swanigan

1.45

1.41

1.38

Cody Zeller

1.76

1.39

1.10

Austin Rivers

1.43

1.27

1.13

Kyle Kuzma

1.20

1.17

1.15

Justin Jackson

1.20

1.17

1.14

Jayson Tatum

1.10

1.08

1.05

Jarrett Allen

1.00

0.97

0.95

Jabari Parker

3.37

0.82

0.20