The return of Chase Sexton to the lineup for the RedBud Nationals had a ripple effect through the opening odds for Round 6 of the Pro Motocross season in Buchanan, Michigan.
Last week at The Wick 338 in Southwick, Massachusetts, Jett Lawrence made two statement rides, easily outperforming the field in both motos. The most likely outcome of that domination would have been that Jett’s odds at RedBud would have lengthened, but with Sexton’s return and the increased competition, he became slightly more attractive, moving from -380 to minus -307. Wagering $300 for the chance to win $100 is still a risky proposition, but betting odds often provide a unique perspective on the relative strength of the field.
Sexton’s return also impacted Eli Tomac’s odds, making him an attractive bet both in reference to the outright win and to score a podium. Tomac has averaged an opening line of about 5/2 during the past four Nationals, but the traders at Alt Sports Data, the official linemaker for the SuperMotocross Championship, are showing very little faith in the veteran. His outright win odds moved substantially from +242 last week to +833 for RedBud. Tomac also sports positive odds for a podium at +127.
While the increased line has as much to do with the traders’ opinion that Jett is virtually unbeatable, Tomac fell from being the third-most attractive rider in their eyes to his being fourth.
Alt Sports is not quite willing to place Sexton in the second slot this week. That honor goes to Hunter Lawrence (+451), who finished second in both Southwick motos. His steady performance during the past several weeks has awakened the traders to his potential as Hunter had nearly 400 points shaved from his line compared to Southwick’s +841.
The surprise of the week may well be Sexton landing third on the chart. His odds of +590 provide a lot of upside if Jett makes a mistake and Sexton is truly prepared for his return. After Jett’s departure from the lineup last year before the RedBud Nationals, Sexton swept the season and won the Motocross championship. His prospectus against a healthy Jett is not as promising, however, and he finished behind him in every race they have contested with the sole exception of Jett’s crash last year at Hangtown.
Aaron Plessinger (+1888) is fifth on the chart this week despite failing to score an overall top-five at Southwick. That sandy track did not suit his riding style and he struggled, but that will increase his desire to rebound during the weekend when his teammate, Sexton, returns to the lineup. Few expect Plessinger to win, but with a line of +213 to podium, a modest wager could be made.
Another podium bet worth considering is for Jorge Prado (+13414 for outright win) who had a raw opening line of +1786 to stand somewhere on the box. Prado earned his first overall top-five last week at The Wick but he contended for podiums in both races.
Justin Cooper (+2733) narrowly kept his top-five streak alive last week. He is the only other rider under 100/1 for the outright win. Bettors who favor a deep strategy might wish to place a modest wager on him.
Opening Odds, Outright Overall Win
Jett Lawrence, -307
Hunter Lawrence, +451
Chase Sexton, +590
Eli Tomac, +833
Aaron Plessinger, +1888
Justin Cooper, +2733
Cooper Webb, +12246
Jason Anderson, +12246
RJ Hampshire, +12246
Justin Barcia, +13414
Malcolm Stewart, +13414
Jorge Prado, +13414
Joey Savatgy, +13414
Lorenzo Locurcio, +14393
Harri Kullas, +14393
Valentin Guillod, +14393
Benoit Paturel, +14393
Mitchell Harrison, +15285
Derek Drake, +15525
Grant Harlan, +15525
Romain Pape, +15525
Colt Nichols, +15525
Derek Kelley, +15525
Coty Schock, +15525
Opening Odds, Overall Podium
Jett Lawrence, -2400
Hunter Lawrence, -163
Chase Sexton, -108
Eli Tomac, +127
Aaron Plessinger, +213
Justin Cooper, +300
RJ Hampshire, +487
Cooper Webb, +569
Jason Anderson, +698
Justin Barcia, +1190
Jorge Prado, +1786
Joey Savatgy, +3446
Malcolm Stewart, +4240
Benoit Paturel, +4240
Harri Kullas, +4240
Coty Schock, +4240
Valentin Guillod, +4240
Grant Harlan, +4240
Colt Nichols, +4240
Lorenzo Locurcio, +4240
Mitchell Harrison, +4240
Romain Pape, +4240
Derek Kelley, +4240
Derek Drake, +4240
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