For the first time in 2025, ALT Sports has awarded a minus line to the favored rider for the outright win, with Chase Sexton opening at -205 for the Monster Energy Supercross finale in Salt Lake City. Sexton opened at +190 last week in Denver before scoring his sixth season victory.
That is only one sign of how massively Sexton is favored.
Sexton and Cooper Webb have been alternately favored during the past several rounds, with minimal points separating them. The differential between Sexton and Webb is nearly 500 points for Salt Lake City. Webb opens at +290, which is his worst opening line since Round 5 in Tampa when he was +352. That week, the Supercross series lost Jett Lawrence to injury. Eli Tomac followed one round later, and the makeup of the betting landscape dramatically changed.
In a head-to-head matchup, Sexton is favored over Webb to the tune of -248 to +180.
The rationale for the outright win line is obvious. Sexton has potentially everything to gain by winning, but only if Webb allows himself to be put in harm’s way. Webb needs to finish only fifth or better to win the championship, and he has finished worse than fourth only once this season. Inexplicably, his odds to win the championship were lowered this week from -478 to -383 while Sexton’s improved from +312 to +261.
The traders believe it’s a foregone conclusion Sexton will podium, giving him a line of -1200 to finish third or better. Webb’s podium odds are -275.
Sexton is also favored to be the fastest qualifier in SLC at -187.
With the loss of Ken Roczen from the entry list last week in Denver, only one other rider has a line under 10/1 for Salt Lake City. Aaron Plessinger (+850) shows his most lucrative line since winning the muddy Foxborough race.
Last week, Justin Cooper (+1250) arguably had more speed than his teammate Webb, but was unwilling to show enough aggression to get into second and alter Webb’s championship clinch scenario. (For further analysis, watch the video embedded above.) Traders noted the strength, however, as Cooper scored his second consecutive podium finish. His opening odds last week were +2156. Cooper is listed at +180 to score another podium in SLC.
In a head-to-head matchup, Plessinger (-139) is favored over Cooper (+105), but there is not a lot of juice in either squeeze.
Opening Odds, Outright Win
Chase Sexton, -205
Cooper Webb, +290
Aaron Plessinger, +850
Justin Cooper, +1250
Malcolm Stewart, +2876
Dylan Ferrandis, +3265
Joey Savatgy, +11169
Shane McElrath, +12275
Justin Hill, +13925
Dean Wilson, +14007
Colt Nichols, +14007
Christian Craig, +14007
Mitchell Oldenburg, +14007
Austin Politelli, +15453
Benny Bloss, +15453
Bubba Pauli, +15453
Mitchell Harrison, +15453
Kyle Chisholm, +16899
Grant Harlan, +16899
Anthony Rodriguez, +16899
Hunter Schlosser, +16899
Freddie Noren, +16899
Cade Clason, +16899
Justin Starling, +16899
Opening Odds, Podium
Chase Sexton -1200
Cooper Webb -275
Aaron Plessinger, +141
Justin Cooper, +180
Malcolm Stewart, +272
Dylan Ferrandis, +290
Joey Savatgy, +687
Shane McElrath, +711
Justin Hill, +767
Dean Wilson, +868
Christian Craig, +945
Colt Nichols, +959
Mitchell Oldenburg, +1115
Austin Politelli, +1331
Benny Bloss, +1595
Bubba Pauli, +2094
Mitchell Harrison, +2513
Kyle Chisholm, +2607
Freddie Noren, +3320
Grant Harlan, +3702
Hunter Schlosser, +4199
Cade Clason, +4271
Anthony Rodriguez, +4499
Justin Starling, +4709
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