Unsurprisingly, Jett Lawrence is Alt Sports Data’s favorite to win both the opening round of the 2025 SuperMotocross World Championship (SMX) playoffs and the title, as the series heads into the first of three races at zMax Dragway in Concord, North Carolina. Notably, Jett has a smaller negative raw, opening line entering zMax than he had for most of the 2025 Pro Motocross season at -285, which virtually matches his line in the MX season finale at Budds Creek (-278).
During the season, Jett was in the minus 800s twice during the outdoor season and averaged a line of about -4/1. A couple of mistakes in the final four rounds cost him victories in Washougal, Washington, and Crawfordsville, Indiana, but he easily won the championship by sweeping the final two weekends. His modest (by Jett’s standards) conclusion to season, coupled with a less-dominant posture in Supercross competition, accounts for the less-punitive line than might be expected.
That does not extend to his odds of winning the championship, however; Jett’s opening line to take the title is -561 compared to a -250 when the Motocross season began at Fox Raceway in Pala, California. Jett did not exceed the -500 mark until Round 4 after he swept the first three weekends of the season. His dominance on the outdoor tracks necessitated the need to stop offering championship lines after Round 8.
Justin Cooper enters the playoffs as the No. 1 seed, but the traders at Alt Sports Data do not anticipate he will hang onto the top spot very long. He is ranked fifth in odds to win the championship at nearly 17/1 (+1676), while his odds of winning the overall at zMax are eighth-best at +3313. With pride on the line and momentum from the end of the 2025 outdoor season, Cooper may be worth a modest bet among his diehard supporters.
The traders continue to show a lot of respect for Chase Sexton (+385), who returns to action this week as the second-ranked rider in the field. His odds of winning the championship are slightly on the other side of the 4/1 range at +419. Sexton won the 2025 Monster Energy Supercross championship after Jett was forced out with a knee injury after four rounds. Sexton won the 2024 Pro Motocross title when Jett missed the end of the season with a thumb injury. Jett remained healthy in both SMX championship bids and is the only title holder the series has crowned.
Eli Tomac (+673 for the outright win) ranks third this week, but the line stretches considerably from Sexton by nearly 300 points. Tomac entered Budds Creek with a three-round streak of overall podiums, but struggled in the finale and finished eighth. He earned four podiums and a fourth-place finish in the first five outdoors rounds and can be a streaky rider when he finds the right setup — something the team has struggled with in 2025. Tomac’s odds to win the championship are +755.
Hunter Lawrence (+697) ended the 2025 Motocross season with more momentum than anyone except Jett. He finished first or second seven times in the final eight rounds, with the one dissenting finish being a fourth at Washougal. He deserves better odds than 7/1 for the outright win, but 5/1 (+505) for the championship is about right.
Opening Odds, Outright Overall Win
Jett Lawrence, -285
Chase Sexton, +385
Eli Tomac, +673
Hunter Lawrence, +697
Ken Roczen, +2588
Cooper Webb, +2733
RJ Hampshire, +2876
Justin Cooper, +3313
Dylan Ferrandis, +10770
Malcolm Stewart, +12246
Justin Barcia, +12246
Joey Savatgy, +12246
Jorge Prado, +12246
Colt Nichols, +13414
Christian Craig, +13414
Benny Bloss, +13414
Jeremy Hand, +15052
Justin Hill, +15052
Shane McElrath, +15052
Dean Wilson, +15052
Mitchell Oldenburg, +15052
Kyle Chisholm, +15052
Mitchell Harrison, +15052
Grant Harlan, +15052
Freddie Noren, +15052
Valentin Guillod, +15052
Marshal Weltin, +15052
Harri Kullas, +15052
Romain Pape, +15052
John Short IV, +15052
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