One race remains in the Pro Motocross season as the 450 riders set their sights on the SuperMotocross World Championship (SMX). But first, there is unfinished business in the outdoor season, and while most positions in the points and seeding for the SMX are determined, pride is still on the line and there are bonus checks to be accumulated for the Budds Creek National in Mechanicsville, Maryland.
Jett Lawrence wasted no time climbing back to the top of the chart last week in the Unadilla National after suffering his longest losing streak of two races as a 450 Motocross rider. One of those losses came at the hands of the American Motorcycle Association (AMA) when he was penalized a lap for fouling the start at Ironman. Regardless of whether the penalty was too harsh, his mistake was avoidable. The other loss came when he was beaten in head-to-head competition at Washougal.
Jett remains the prohibitive favorite with a -278, but that is better than the eight-round average of -450 that he accumulated in his early winning streak.
Hunter Lawrence (+252) finished second in both Unadilla motos and was scored second overall. That is a difference of a little less than 60 points from his Unadilla line (+193) and considerably lower than the remainder of the field. Alt Sports Data’s traders fully expect the Lawrence brothers to end on a high note.
Eli Tomac (+760) smiled with his lips, but there was determination in his eyes when he said he was tired of losing to the Lawrences. He has only one more opportunity to show them why he won so many championships during his storied career. The open question for Tomac is how chemistry with the team has been affected by the knowledge that he will not ride for them in 2026.
Justin Cooper’s (+1861) Motocross odyssey made him the No. 1 seed for the SMX Playoffs, and his steady progression is apparent in the evolution of his betting line. He debuted at 98/1 at Fox Raceway in Pala, California. A strong top-five overall finish there cut his odds in half for Hangtown the following week (47/1), and since then, his line has been steadily lowered. That is a firm indication that the traders believe he is capable of stringing two solid motos together. He will need a little help from the competition, but if they turn attention to SMX, he could get it. Cooper’s podium odds are +178.
Notably, RJ Hampshire (+2345, overall win) has slightly lower podium odds (+165) than Copper, while his outright win odds are nearly 500 points higher. Bettors and fans can tell a lot from betting lines, and this suggests they value Hampshire’s consistency over that of Cooper. In a head-to-head matchup, NXTBets.com has them virtually even with -120 odds for Cooper and -110 for Hampshire.
Dylan Ferrandis (+7476) returned to action at Ironman, but it was a last-minute decision. Ferrandis has his first betting line of the season, which is significantly higher than his Supercross season average of +6018.
Opening Odds, Outright Overall Win
Jett Lawrence, -278
Hunter Lawrence, +252
Eli Tomac, +760
Justin Cooper, +1861
RJ Hampshire, +2345
Ken Roczen, +2406
Dylan Ferrandis, +7476
Jorge Prado, +11948
Justin Barcia, +11948
Malcolm Stewart, +13058
Valentin Guillod, +13058
Kyle Webster, +13058
Benoit Paturel, +13058
Coty Schock, +14393
Marshal Weltin, +14393
Harri Kullas, +14393
Max Miller, +14393
Henry Miller, +14393
Jeremy Hand, +14393
Bryce Shelly, +14393
Mitchell Harrison, +14393
Romain Pape, +14393
Lorenzo Locurcio, +14393
Shane McElrath, +14393
Opening Odds, Overall Podium
Jett Lawrence, -2400
Hunter Lawrence, -500
Eli Tomac, -106
RJ Hampshire, +165
Justin Cooper, +178
Dylan Ferrandis, +451
Ken Roczen, +490
Justin Barcia, +947
Jorge Prado, +1249
Malcolm Stewart, +2016
Kyle Webster, +3252
Valentin Guillod, +4802
Coty Schock, +7801
Harri Kullas, +7801
Benoit Paturel, +7801
Marshal Weltin, +7801
Mitchell Harrison, +7801
Shane McElrath, +7801
Lorenzo Locurcio, +7801
Romain Pape, +7801
Henry Miller, +7801
Jeremy Hand, +7801
Bryce Shelly, +7801
Max Miller, +7801
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