After splitting the Spring Creek National motos with his brother, Hunter Lawrence, Jett Lawrence’s (-824) raw opening odds for the Washougal (Washington) National changed only slightly. He opened at -800 for Spring Creek, but it will cost another $24 this week to win back $100. Until proven otherwise, Jett should be regarded as unbeatable.
Hunter’s (+432) odds also became slightly less attractive this week after winning the first race and finishing second in Moto 2. He had a little more than 40 points shaved off his line of +475 entering Spring Creek, but it bears noting that his three-race average of +452 remains significantly better than the three rounds previous, when he averaged +850. The Lawrence brothers were in a class of their own in Minnesota, but the data pool is too shallow to predict that Hunter will consistently challenge Jett. That raises questions about Hunter’s minus odds for a podium, which opened at -285.
If a bettor places an outright win bet on Hunter, they may as well cover it with another wager on the head-to-head matchup between the brothers. Jett is heavily favored at -650 over Hunter’s +392.
Chase Sexton (+580) was best-in-class in the Spring Creek National, although he ran a distant third in both motos. Consistency on the track ping-ponged his odds this week. He opened at +590 for his Pro Motocross return at RedBud, sagged to +763 for Spring Creek, and rebounded at Washougal. For reference, Sexton opened the season at +499.
Now that his chances of winning the championship have all but evaporated, a lot of wind has gone out of Eli Tomac’s (+1705) sails. Even before his mechanical failure two rounds ago, which practically eliminated him from contention, his odds slipped from a three-round average of +263 to +833 for RedBud. He fell further for Spring Creek to +1569, and that trend continued into Washougal’s 17/1 handicap. Pride is a powerful motivation, however, and that could be worth some couch cushion money.
Tomac’s podium odds of +161 do not provide much juice for the squeeze, but there may be another wager worth considering. Tomac matches up against Sexton in a head-to-head battle this week, with Sexton favored at -229 to Tomac’s +167.
The podium odds provide some of the most interesting considerations this week. Justin Cooper (+3949, overall win) ranks fifth on the handicap chart this week with a line of +265 to finish among the top three. He gets the traders’ nod over RJ Hampshire (+12887) because of season-long consistency, but Hampshire has come on strong in recent rounds with fourth-place results overall in the past two weeks. Given his long outright win odds of 129/1, intrepid gamblers might even want to slip some discretionary money his way.
Justin Barcia (+12887) scored a surprise top-five at Spring Creek. With Cooper Webb out for knee surgery and Aaron Plessinger out for illness this week, Barcia’s +2073 for a podium is worth a second look.
Opening Odds, Outright Overall Win
Jett Lawrence, -824
Hunter Lawrence, +432
Chase Sexton, +580
Eli Tomac, +1705
Justin Cooper, +3949
Tony Cairoli, +12887
Jorge Prado, +12887
Jason Anderson, +12887
RJ Hampshire, +12887
Justin Barcia, +12887
Joey Savatgy, +12887
Valentin Guillod, +12887
Malcolm Stewart, +13599
Coty Schock, +13599
Harri Kullas, +13599
Romain Pape, +13599
Colt Nichols, +14825
Benoit Paturel, +14825
Derek Kelley, +14825
Cornelius Tøndel, +14825
Marshal Weltin, +14825
Mitchell Harrison, +14825
Lorenzo Locurcio, +14825
Opening Odds, Overall Podium
Jett Lawrence, -3233
Hunter Lawrence, -285
Chase Sexton, -202
Eli Tomac, +161
Justin Cooper, +265
R.J. Hampshire, +387
Jason Anderson, +1286
Jorge Prado, +1908
Justin Barcia, +2073
Tony Cairoli, +2418
Malcolm Stewart, +5365
Joey Savatgy, +7815
Harri Kullas, +7815
Valentin Guillod, +7815
Benoit Paturel, +7815
Coty Schock, +7815
Lorenzo Locurcio, +7815
Marshal Weltin, +7815
Colt Nichols, +7815
Romain Pape, +7815
Mitchell Harrison, +7815
Derek Kelley, +7815
Cornelius Tøndel, +7815
More SuperMotocross News
Tom Vialle to skip Washougal
Aaron Plessinger to miss Washougal for illness
Julien Beaumer sits out two rounds to heal from High Point crash
Spring Creek 450 Results | 250 Results
Jett Lawrence again overcomes Moto 1, scores Spring Creek victory
Jeremy Martin wins final career moto at Spring Creek
Hunter wins Spring Creek Moto 1 after Jett crashed on Lap 1
Haiden Deegan wins intense Spring Creek Moto 1 battle over Jo Shimoda
Cooper Webb injures knee at RedBud, out until playoffs
Cole Davies cleared to ride following Denver crash
