Welcome to the inaugural edition of “Positional Fallers.” This five-week series will examine four candidates at each position who are prime candidates to slide backwards when owners put together their draft boards for next season. Each pick comes with at least one red flag tied to their game, and it’s never a good look to draft someone right before the decline begins.
As Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots would say, it’s better to let go of a player too early than too late. Here are links to all of the positional fallers:
PG | SG | SF | PF | C
Positional Risers Series: Point Guard, Shooting Guard, Small Forward, Power Forward, Center
This week, we start with point guards and focus on some big names with shrinking games.
Hello, Brooklyn.
Deron Williams, PG Brooklyn Nets
2014 ADP: 37.5 Overall, Round 3.9
Key Stats: 13.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 0.9 steals, 2.3 TO, 1.3 triples, 38.7% shooting, 83.4% FT shooting
Doesn’t this famous photo seem like such a long time ago? It was taken in 2012.
Deron Williams is no longer the franchise face of the Nets, and he’s not even certain to be on the roster next season. When the team sent out a letter to season ticket holders in advance of the 2015 offseason beginning, the club singled out Brook Lopez and Thad Young as building blocks for its future. Mason Plumlee got a shoutout, Bojan Bogdanovic made an appearance and even unknown commodities like Markel Brown and Sergey Karasev drew a mention. Noticeably absent? D-Will and Joe Johnson, a strong indication of what direction this franchise is headed in next.
This isn’t a new trend. Williams has been on the decline since his initial arrival to the East Coast, and we didn’t see much last season that would indicate a surprising rebirth the next time around. Williams couldn’t even hold his starter’s spot ahead of Jarrett Jack for the duration of the campaign, and as a sub-40 percent shooter with decimated ankles, Williams doesn’t offer the same threat against opposing defenses that he once did.
For some unknown reason, Williams was being drafted ahead of Eric Bledsoe (38.6) going into last season. That shouldn’t have happened then, and it is certain that it won’t happen going forward. With an uncertain future, an undetermined role and health a constant question, Williams is someone to avoid when perusing the point guard crop.
Rajon Rondo, PG Dallas Mavericks*
2014 ADP: 46.4 Overall, Round 4.6
Key Stats (w/ DAL): 9.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.2 steals, 2.9 TO, 43.6% shooting, 45.2% FT shooting
The asterisk next to Rajon Rondo’s name isn’t to denote his status as a Connect Four champion, but rather to highlight how volatile Rondo’s stock is as he prepares to enter the unrestricted free agent process for the first time in his career. After a tumultuous tenure in Dallas following a trade from Boston the ended with Rick Carlisle stating that Rondo would never wear a Mavs uniform again, the mercurial point guard will be looking for his third team in the last 365 days once the action kicks off in July. And it’s never been tougher to project his parabola.
A former All-Star point guard who looked like the next elite player at the position, Rondo hasn’t appeared as that player since tearing his ACL in 2013. It’s been tough to judge Rondo in a vacuum because of the context he’s appeared in since that time - with the rebuilding Celtics and a poor fit with the Mavericks - but that illustrates one of the biggest issues with Rondo: He has to have the right fits around him to thrive.
A controlling, ball-dominant guard who doesn’t have an outside shot to speak of, Rondo’s game is somewhat antiquated for the point guard position that has put an increased emphasis on shooting. And because Rondo has to be on the floor with both shooters and scorers in order to make his game work, he’s often fighting for control of the ball in the half-court set. The more time Rondo spends without the ball, the less he does for your team both on the floor and on your fantasy roster. He’s not a threat, a decoy or anything else unless he’s given the keys to operate an offense. And with his putrid performance at the foul line, it’s difficult to justify investing in Rondo at the expected price point.
Brandon Jennings, PG Detroit Pistons
2014 ADP: 82.0 overall, Round 7.7
Key Stats: 15.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.2 TO, 1.9 triples, 40.1% shooting, 83.9% FT shooting
When Reggie Jackson, an impending restricted free agent, was acquired at the NBA trade deadline following Brandon Jennings (Achilles) going out for the season, the immediate question became “what’s next for Brandon?” With Jennings now well into his rehab and out of his protective walking boot, the question has become “What are the Pistons going to do with two poor shooting point guards next season?” Stan Van Gundy recently offered his thoughts:
“I think it can work,” Van Gundy said. “I think that we’ve seen a vision of it already with (Russell) Westbrook and Reggie in Oklahoma City. They were certainly able to find minutes for both of them. So yeah, I’ve certainly thought about it. But that would be jumping the gun a little bit. The main thing is to get him back.”
If the Pistons are planning to continue to build around Andre Drummond - and every indication is that they will do just that - the Jennings-Jackson combination is going to have to be broken up at some point. Jennings is a career 39.1% shooter and Jackson is only a touch better at 43.2%. With spacing at a premium in order to free up space for Drummond to operate down low - something we’ve seen Van Gundy prioritize - there just won’t be enough minutes to go around. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was the Pistons No. 8 pick in the 2013 draft, and Jodie Meeks was SVG’s first free agent signing upon initially into Detroit. With Jackson expected to be re-signed on a deal eclipsing $12 million annually, where are Jennings’ minutes going to come from?
Considering Jennings won’t start running until August and is facing an uncertain role when he does return, you can make a better pick on draft day.
Jeremy Lin, PG Los Angeles Lakers*
2014 ADP: 87.3 overall, Round 8.3
Key Stats: 11.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.2 TO, 0.9 triples, 42.4% shooting, 79.5% FT shooting
I was wrong about Jeremy Lin. There, I said it.
Before Lin’s one-and-done season (UFA) with the Los Angeles Lakers began, I was adamant that he’d be an absolute steal. Considering he had to just beat out training camp invite Ronnie Price and second-round pick Jordan Clarkson - who didn’t emerge until long after Lin had failed - it was an opportunity where Lin should have found success. Instead, he clashed with head coach Byron Scott, had a hard time finding driving lanes in an offense without spacing and looked like a mediocre player in the process.
And while some would be quick to suggest that Lin performed better once he got acclimated to his surroundings and upon finding common ground with Scott, that perception wasn’t based in reality. In 52 games before the All-Star break, Lin averaged 10.2 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.1 steals on 42.6% shooting. In 22 games after the All-Star break, Lin posted 13.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.2 steals on 41.9% shooting. That’s the exact same player no matter which side of the splits one is looking at, and it’s hard to see how that type of production leads to a larger role for Lin regardless of where he ultimately lands.
You can bet the farm that players like Reggie Jackson (98.3), Elfrid Payton (117.2) and Marcus Smart (132.7) will be drafted before Lin’s name gets plucked off the board - assuming he gets drafted at all.
