Thursday night’s loss to the Falcons dropped the Buccaneers out of first place in the NFC South, and for the first time this season the Panthers are in the NFL playoff picture and the Buccaneers are out.
Despite all that, the Bucs remain the betting favorites to win the division.
The current betting odds have the Bucs as the -130 favorites to win the division, and the Panthers as the +110 underdogs. It’s a two-team race, as the Falcons and Saints are both mathematically eliminated.
The NFL schedule makers gave us plenty of intrigue in the NFC South, as the Buccaneers and Panthers play against each other in Week 16 and again in Week 18. If either team sweeps those two games, that team wins the NFC South regardless of what happens in any other game. The NFC South race is still wide open, and likely will remain open into the regular-season finale.
Bucs Clips
As the fourth overall pick, Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. entered the league in 2021 with ridiculously high expectations. Despite becoming the first rookie tight end since Mike Ditka to generate 1,000-plus receiving yards as a rookie (Brock Bowers has since matched the feat), Pitts has failed to meet the bar that his draft pedigree and potential established.
That changed on Thursday night, with a prime-time breakout only four games away from his first crack at free agency: 11 catches, 166 yards, three touchdowns.
It was his first 100-yard game of the season, although in recent weeks he’d been getting closer and closer. In Week 13, Pitts had a then-season-high 82 yards on seven catches against the Jets. In Week 14, he gained 90 yards on six catches.
Also, the Week 15 game resulted in his first 100-yard receiving performance since December 26, 2021.
After last night, the past may not matter. He showed what he can do, under the right circumstances. And as Bill Walsh once said, if a guy can do something once, he can be coached to do it consistently.
So here’s the question. What will happen when Pitts becomes available? Will a team be sufficiently enthralled by last night’s showing that it shows him the kind of money most never dreamed he’d earn?
The Buccaneers, who witnessed it the hard way, may want to put him at the top of the wish list. If it turns out to be Mike Evans’s final year in Tampa, that money and cap space could go to Pitts.
Really, any team with a need at the position should consider Pitts. Any team without a need should evaluate him as a potential upgrade.
On Thursday night, everyone saw what Kyle Pitts can do. Of the 32 teams in the NFL, one of them likely will decide to pay him a lot of money in the hopes that he’ll do it again.
And again. And again.
Todd Bowles hasn’t been known for fiery press conferences over the years, but the Buccaneers head coach had one on Thursday night after his team blew a 14-point lead to the Falcons and lost for the fifth time in their last six games.
Bowles called the team’s performance “inexcusable” in a profanity-laced excoriation of their effort against Atlanta and said in a Friday morning videoconference that his comments weren’t meant to send a message to the locker room. Bowles said he sent the same message to the team in their postgame meeting and that everything he said on Thursday night was “honest, raw, and right off the top.”
Bowles also said that the response to the loss wasn’t because of any thoughts he might be having about how the team’s recent slide could impact his own job security.
“I don’t think I worry about it at all,” Bowles said. “It doesn’t creep into the locker room. Players play and coaches coach. I got more years behind me than I do ahead of me. I think we’re in a situation where we’re right back in it and our only focus is on winning a ball game.”
It’s too late in the season to make any significant changes to the personnel or schemes in Tampa, so the current players are going to have to play better and the current coaches are going to have to coach better in order for them to hold off the Panthers for a playoff berth that would quiet most of the questions about Bowles’ future in Tampa.
The Falcons trailed 28-20 with five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter when receiver Darnell Mooney fumbled. Six Buccaneers players surrounded the ball, and it looked like the Bucs were about to recover and that the Falcons’ best chance of a comeback had just been fumbled away.
Instead, Falcons center Ryan Neuzil, who was far behind the play at the time the ball came out, sprinted downfield, jumped into the pile and ended up with possession, a crucial fumble recovery that kept the Falcons’ drive alive, leading to a touchdown and ultimately a 29-28 win.
It was an extraordinary play from Neuzil, whose teammates and coaches said afterward that they couldn’t believe what he did.
“I jogged off the field, I said there’s no way we recovered that ball. I just jogged off. Someone said, ‘No, we might have it.’ I said, ‘How?’” Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins said after the game. “Our offensive line coach [Dwayne Ledford] preaches covering. So when the ball is thrown and the rush stops, you are to run forward. You don’t know where or why but you are to run forward. They coach it. They do it so much that when we’re in walk-through, just walking through plays, after every play they walk forward to train the muscle memory. Neuzil covered tonight. If you watch the tape, they do it a lot, more than most guys I’ve played with. When you cover like that, it saved the game. I’m so happy for Neuz making that play. It’s classic o-lineman to just do their job, not make it about them, and be in the right spot and make the play because they’re doing what they’re coached to do.”
Falcons coach Raheem Morris said Neuzil made exactly the kind of play he told his players before the game he needed them to make to find a way to win.
“Effort. Effort,” Morris said. “We talk about covering for our offensive line, you run down the field and do the things that’s required. To watch him do those things, finish and get the ball back for his football team. We talked before the game about playing for each other, and that is the absolute definition of playing for each other when you run down the field and you recover a fumble like that and you get the ball back and continue to give us a chance.”
Offensive linemen don’t get enough credit for their big plays. Neuzil deserves the praise he’s receiving for a huge play on Thursday night.
The Falcons beat the Buccaneers on Thursday night despite a stunning display of penalties, the likes of which the NFL had not seen in years.
Atlanta committed 19 accepted penalties for a total of 125 yards on Thursday night. That’s the most accepted penalties in an NFL game in nine years.
The last time a team committed more penalties than that was October 30, 2016, when the Raiders committed 23 accepted penalties. That game was also against the Buccaneers, and the Buccaneers also managed to find a way to lose that one, 30-24 in overtime, despite all their opponents’ miscues.
On Thursday night the Bucs committed just four accepted penalties, for 25 yards. But they lost 29-28 despite the huge advantage in penalty margin.
Morris was proud that his team, which has been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, fought hard to win, despite the penalties.
“We’ll clean up the penalties and do what we have to do, whatever that is,” Morris said.
Morris was seen screaming at a TV camera at the end of the game, and he said afterward that he was yelling about the penalties. He knows they were a problem for his team on Thursday night, but he also knows his team overcame a lot to get a big win.
The Buccaneers blew a key game on Thursday night. After the loss to the Falcons, quarterback Baker Mayfield accepted the blame for it.
“It falls on my shoulders,” Mayfield told reporters following the 29-28 defeat. “Can’t turn the ball over, can’t have that interception. And then, just gotta hit [Emeka Egbuka] in stride on that third down. Listen, you can say what you want about being up two scores and the defense right there, but we have to be better on offense, and it comes down to how I play. And this one’s gonna haunt me. This falls on my shoulders.”
Asked whether the issue related to decision making, Mayfield was clear on what he needed to do: “Make the throws. Make the throws.”
Up eight in the fourth quarter, Mayfield threw an interception to Falcons defensive back Dee Alford.
“It wasn’t even a disguise, you know,” Mayfield said. “It’s quarters coverage. He’s playing outside leverage, which is really not what he normally does on tape. You gotta go through the reads and if it’s not there, take the damn check down. And it’s plain and simple. This one’s, like I said, it’s gotta beat me up for a little bit.”
Mayfield also was asked about coach Todd Bowles’s message to the team.
“He hit the nail on the head, saying and questioning does it mean anything to the guys?” Mayfield said. “Like, ‘Does this hurt enough for you to actually make changes. To come in, do the work that you need to do, to do the things that we need to do as a team to get better, fix these things and win ball games?’ And he repeated it, and it really is as simple as that. We have talent. Talent doesn’t get you shit though. Doing the work and executing on game days does, and that’s — we didn’t do that today. Like I said, I did not do that.”
Mayfield said it’s not an issue with preparation but execution. He also acknowledged the possibility that it’s a matter of concentration in crunch time.
“I don’t know if it’s losing focus late in games,” Mayfield said. “You know, mine was just lack of execution. But I don’t know if it’s losing focus late in games. I mean, I can’t speak for the defense, but I can speak for the offense. I can speak for myself, and that was that was just execution on my part.”
The end result is that the 7-7 Buccaneers are not happy.
“We’re pissed off,” Mayfield said. “We expected to win that game. We want to win that game. Should be pissed off. And, like I said, when you’re up two scores and your offense has a chance to put the game away, and you don’t — obviously, people are gonna blame the defense, but it’s not the defense’s fault. It’s our fault. It’s my fault. And that’s that’s how I view it, and that’s how I’m gonna handle it.”
They can still get to the playoffs, if they handle their business.
“We have to win out, and we know that,” Mayfield said. “It’s — that’s as plain and simple as it is. We put ourselves in a position to have to do that. So if guys don’t handle that the right way, then we have a much deeper issue. But I don’t believe that we have a culture issue. We’ve just got to be able to translate the stuff that we prepare, we talk about, and do on a consistent basis. We’ve got to translate it to game day.”
The next game day comes in nine days, when they face the Panthers for the first of two meetings in the final three weeks of the season, with a visit to Miami in between.
Win them all, and tonight’s outcome will become a faded memory. Fail to deliver, and the Week 15 Thursday night could be haunting a lot more people than Baker Mayfield.
The Carolina Panthers moved into first place in the NFC South when the Buccaneers lost on Thursday night, and Week 15 will see several more games that impact the playoff race. Here’s how the NFL playoff picture looks after Thursday Night Football in Week 15:
AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS
1. Broncos (11-2) If they win out, they’re the No. 1 seed in the AFC, as they own the tiebreaker over the Patriots.
2. Patriots (11-2) Their lead in the AFC East looks safe, but to earn the No. 1 seed they have to hope the Broncos lose a game.
3. Jaguars (9-4) After beating the Colts, they’re the clear favorites in the AFC South.
4. Steelers (7-6) Got their biggest win of the season in Baltimore.
WILD CARDS
5. Chargers (9-4) First in the wild card race thanks to a better AFC record than the Bills.
6. Bills (9-4) Probably won’t catch the Patriots in the AFC East even if they win on Sunday, but in great shape for a wild card.
7. Texans (8-5) Own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Colts.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
8. Colts (8-5) Getting to the playoffs may require a miraculous performance from Philip Rivers.
9. Ravens (6-7) Losing at home to the Steelers was costly.
10. Chiefs (6-7) Kansas City could be eliminated as soon as Sunday, and probably can’t make the playoffs even if they run the table.
11. Dolphins (6-7) Best of the bad teams in the AFC.
12. Bengals (4-9) Clinched a losing record with their loss in Buffalo.
13. Jets (3-10) Mathematically eliminated.
14. Browns (3-10) Mathematically eliminated.
15. Raiders (2-11) Mathematically eliminated.
16. Titans (2-11) Mathematically eliminated.
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS
1. Rams (10-3) Own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks in the NFC West.
2. Packers (9-3-1) Big win over the Bears.
3. Eagles (8-5) Defending champions are on a three-game losing streak but still have a 1.5-game lead over the Cowboys in the NFC East.
4. Panthers (7-6) Took the lead in the NFC South for the first time this season when the Buccaneers lost to the Falcons.
WILD CARDS
5. Seahawks (10-3) Need to win their rematch with the Rams on December 18.
6. 49ers (9-4) Despite a lot of injuries, they remain in playoff position.
7. Bears (9-4) If they run the table they win the NFC North.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
8. Lions (8-5) If they run the table they’re guaranteed of at least a wild card berth.
9. Buccaneers (7-7) Two games remaining against the Panthers will determine who wins the NFC South.
10. Cowboys (6-6-1) They probably need to run the table, and even then they may not make the playoffs.
11. Vikings (5-8) Last place in the NFC North.
12. Falcons (4-9) Mathematically eliminated.
13. Cardinals (3-10) Mathematically eliminated.
14. Saints (3-10) Mathematically eliminated.
15. Commanders (3-10) Mathematically eliminated.
16. Giants (2-11) Mathematically eliminated.
Todd Bowles is gonna end up with soap poisoning.
After Thursday night’s loss to the Falcons, during which the Buccaneers blew a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead to lose their second home game to an eliminated division rival only four days apart, Tampa Bay’s head coach let the expletives fly during his post-game press conference.
Asked what he tells the team in the locker room after a game like this, Bowles was blunt. And repeatedly profane.
“It’s inexcusable,” Bowles said. “We don’t make excuses. We — you gotta fucking care enough where the shit hurts. You gotta fucking care enough where the shit hurts. Gotta fucking mean something to you. It’s more than a job, it’s your fucking livelihood. How well do you know your job? How well can you do your job? You can’t sugar coat that shit. It was in-fucking-excusable. And there’s no fucking answer for it. There’s no excuse for it. That’s what you tell them in the locker room. Look in the fucking mirror.”
He’s right. The problem is that, the buck for the Bucs ultimately stops with him. Salary-cap consequences limit the number of players that can be dumped after a given season. There’s no cap charge for changing coaches.
But there’s still hope, for the Buccaneers and for Bowles. They can wake up, win out, secure the division, and get to the playoffs for the sixth straight year. Bowles’s ability to keep his current job may indeed be hinging on it.
The chants could be heard on TNF Nightcap: “Fire Bowles. Fire Bowles. Fire Bowles.”
And, suddenly, it’s not crazy to think that Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles could be on the outs, if the season ends without a playoff berth.
With two home losses only four days apart to division rivals who had been eliminated from postseason contention, the Buccaneers have now lost five of six, slipping to 7-7 and (for now) second place in the NFC South.
Making matters worse is the fact that the Bucs blew a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead to the Falcons, on the night the franchise celebrated its 50th season.
While they can still redeem themselves — and win the division — by sweeping upcoming games against the Panthers, Dolphins, and Panthers, the Bucs now have a very real risk of squandering a playoff berth that once seemed to be a given.
The Bucs continue to control their playoff fate. Win the next three, and they’ll win the division. But when they’ve lost twice between Sunday and Thursday to teams that were playing for nothing other than pride and paychecks, it’s hard to have an abundance of faith in a turnaround.
And while Bowles has led the Bucs to three division titles in three years on the job, the simple reality is that, every year, up to a fourth of the league’s teams change coaches. And the Buccaneers have not been bashful about pulling the plug. They’ve had eight coaches since 2001, with Tony Dungy, Jon Gruden, Raheem Morris, Greg Schiano, Lovie Smith, and Dirk Koetter each getting fired. (Although Bruce Arians exited voluntarily, the circumstances suggested that he walked the plank with a healthy push.)
It’s fair to wonder whether, if the current collapse continues, Bowles will be among the next class of the Fired Football Coaches of America.
The Falcons could not get out of their own way for most of Thursday night, but they somehow pulled out a 29-28 upset of the Bucs on the final play. Zane Gonzalez’s 43-yard field goal was a dagger to the Bucs’ playoff hopes.
The Panthers are in the driver’s seat in the NFC South after the Bucs lost for the fifth time in six games, this one a heartbreaker. Tampa Bay fell to 7-7, with Atlanta improving to 5-9.
It was a night of star-studded performances. Kyle Pitts, Kirk Cousins and Bijan Robinson had big nights for the Falcons, and Mike Evans returned from his fractured collarbone for his best game in almost a year.
In a game that meant nothing for the Falcons, who already were eliminated from playoff contention, they overcame their own mistakes. Robinson lost a fumble that led to a 25-yard Bucs’ touchdown drive and a 28-14 Bucs’ lead in the fourth quarter, and the Falcons had 19 penalties for 125 yards.
The Falcons erased the Bucs’ 14-point, fourth-quarter lead with two touchdowns — one by Robinson and one by Pitts — followed by two missed 2-point conversions and Gonzalez’s kick.
Atlanta trailed 28-26 with 3:34 left when the Bucs got the ball back. Tampa Bay, though, couldn’t close it out.
Atlanta used its final timeout with 2:24 left in the fourth quarter. The Bucs then threw an incompletion on second-and-14, and Baker Mayfield was sacked for no yards to take it to the 2-minute warning. The Falcons got the ball back with 1:49 left in the fourth quarter, needing only a field goal for the win.
Bucs edge rusher Haason Reddick had a strip-sack of Cousins for an 8-yard loss, and officials ruled Cousins had simultaneous possession of the fumble, allowing the Falcons to keep the ball. On the next play, left tackle Jake Matthews was called for holding to set up a second-and-28 that turned into a third-and-28. Pitts caught a 14-yard pass on third down, and David Sills, who dropped a potential touchdown pass earlier in the game, caught a 21-yarder on fourth-and-14.
That led to Gonzalez’s game-winner.
The Falcons outgained the Bucs 476 to 338, with Cousins going 30-of-44 for 373 and three touchdowns. Pitts scored all three of the touchdown receptions on catches of 8, 17 and 7 yards. He finished with 11 catches for 166 yards. Robinson had 19 carries for 93 yards and a touchdown and eight catches for 82 yards.
Mayfield was 19-of-34 for 277 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Evans caught six passes for 132 yards. Chris Godwin and Devin Culp had touchdown receptions.
